Gallup doesn't weight their polls by party affiliation. There were several articles to this effect a couple weeks ago. They did release a "turnout forecast" which showed R+1 (Compared to D+8 actual in 2008). R+6 is way too optimistic. In fact, I think it will actually be around D+2 this year - but still enough to yield a substantial Romney win if he maintains his strong lead with undecideds.
That said, I am a little suspicious about Gallup suspending their polling during Hurricane Sandy. It seems more than a little convenient that they would essentially take a week off from reporting results until the day before the election. Like you said, this would allow them to "normalize" their results with the other polls without having to explain themselves.
If, however, Gallup comes in today with Romney still up 4-6 points - it will make for a very interesting afternoon!
Hi Sam,
Great comment!
I should have been clearer. By “R+6” I meant Romney+6 that Gallup was reporting and not the turnout number of Republicans over Democrats by 6
One hour to go till we find out what Frank Newport has to say
Gallup doesn’t weight their polls by party affiliation. There were several articles to this effect a couple weeks ago. They did release a “turnout forecast” which showed R+1 (Compared to D+8 actual in 2008).
did anyone see brit hume on bret baier tonite? when talking about the gallup r+1 poll, he said “wow, if thats true, its over”.