Posted on 11/04/2012 11:56:33 PM PST by Arthurio
Dick Morris appeared on a special Sunday broadcast of FOX News' "On the Record" with host Greta van Susteren to reaffirm his prediction that Mitt Romney will win Tuesday's presidential election in a landslide. Morris discussed the states he believes Romney will win and the number of electoral votes he predicts the Republican candidate will end up with.
Morris says Romney will capture 325 electoral votes while Obama will get 213, a significant difference.
"It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history," Morris said. "It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit."
Morris tells van Susteren pollsters are oversampling Democrats and says a poll that claims Obama is up 3, really means Romney is winning by 4.
(Excerpt) Read more at realclearpolitics.com ...
All the online sportsbooks have Obama as the one favored to win.
How do they work you just put money on who you think is going to win?
I’m not sure how smart bookies are.
Bookies are smart about sports, not politics.
Do they know any inside information that the public don’t know about?
Do they know any inside information that the public don’t know about?
I think he is way off unfortunately...
Romney will likely only get 319 electoral votes. you really need to dismiss the optimistic folks.
The most important bettor are Wall Street junkies. One of my frat brothers works for T Rowe and he knows most there are hedging towards a Romney win. Even the libs he knows in the firm want a Romney win as they respect his business resume.
Morris sounded really confident. I know he hasn’t been right all the time, but he basically put his 40 years of reading polls and his career on the line tonight. He wouldn’t back down.
I’m no statistician, but it makes no sense to me that you can randomly sample different groups, numbers of people, different states and in poll after poll keep telling the American people it’s tied. What are the odds of that? Even with weighting, it shouldn’t come out exactly tied (not just within the margin of error) but exactly tied in so many polls, especially with oversampling in different polls by differing amounts.
all the online bookies are overseas as are virtually all the bettors. They are basically either rabidly pro-Obama or just clueless about the flaws in the polls and the turnout models. You can’t get an account on InTrade unless you bank from an offshore account.
319 is fine with me.
All this talk of 300+ EVs is unjustified. I hope I am wrong and Romney loses, but I trust the aggregation of polls more than I trust Dick Morris' prognostications.
All this talk of 300+ EVs is unjustified. I hope I am wrong and Romney wins, but I trust the aggregation of polls more than I trust Dick Morris' prognostications.
Dick Morris makes millions of dollars a year helping candidates and parties win world-wide. There’s a reason both Trent Lott and Bill Clinton hired him. If he, Michael Barone and Karl Rove say it’s gonna rain, buy a boat.
This is a solid Romney win:
(1) “Undecideds break for the challenger”—every election, no exceptions. They know the incumbent and don’t like them.
(2) On Wisconsin—the pollsters called that recall election “too close to call” in their most recent test of polling “technology”. They failed again. RR will win Wisconsin by Walker-like margins.
(3) and Ohio and maybe PA. Blue collar white males hate pollsters and won’t tell them the truth.
If the online bettors had inside info / stuff the public didn’t know about, they’d probably sit on it till the last minute while Romney’s prices are low.
Also of interest: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955037/posts
Basically one thing to keep in minds, is that often public polls get hired to help generate news cycles, not to put out highly accurate polls.
If the online bettors had inside info / stuff the public didn’t know about, they’d probably sit on it till the last minute while Romney’s prices are low.
Also of interest: http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2955037/posts
Basically one thing to keep in mind, is that often public polls get hired to help generate news cycles, not to put out highly accurate polls.
I’m in for 300.
Romney was a +225 on Sportsbook. That means if you bet 100 dollars, you get paid 225. Return of 125 if Romney wins. better than doubling your money. Obama is a -285. If you put 100 on Obama, your return is about 36 dollars if Obama wins.
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