This kind of wishful thinking, bunker mentality was our downfall in 2008. I don't think it is prudent to disregard Pew - it was one of the most accurate polls from 2008.
It seems clear that Romney will need some special boost to overcome what seems like a comfortable victory scenario for 0.
Lets not fool ourselves - 0 is ahead and winning at this point. Romney's options are narrowing. He could still pull it off, but it will be very difficult...
If you think that its really D+6, Pew might be right.
No one else thinks its going to be that high.
And if you judge how the campaigns are performing, the edge goes to Romney.
Sure, Pew had an enviable track record in the past but this poll is way off.
If you buy into the assumption this is 2008 all over again, then of course Obama wins.
I just think the data is bad on this one and its an outlier. All the other polls show the race tied and O is under 50% in them.
Pew was only accurate in 2008 because they skewed their polls in anticipation of a huge Democrat turn out and it actually happened.
All the polls you’re seeing now are counting on a 2008+ Democrat turn out. Early voting numbers across the board indicates it’s not going to happen. The polls I assume you’re looking to reach the conclusion that Obama is somehow winning also indicate Republicans are way more likely to turnout. The .huge Democrat turn out is not happening.
Look at messages. Obama is hammering the Tea Party trying to turn out his base in order to avoid down ticket disaster.. Hardly confident.
The entire election is being fought in blue states Obama should already have won.
Your conclusion Obama is winning is ridiculous on it’s face. Obama got a small bump from Sandy that is now evaporating. Not sure where you get your news.....methinks MSNBC.
You are right, but people don't want objective right now. Folks just want to hear good news - and you can't really blame them 2 days from an election.
The reality is that Pew's election forecasts are almost dead on accurate. In 2004 they predicted Bush 51 Kerry 48 which was almost perfect. In 2008 they had it Obama 52 McCain 46 which was almost nearly right on the mark. This poll shows Obama winning narrowly. That, I suspect, will be the likely result Tuesday. Romney might still pull this out, but it looks like Obama just got too much of a bump from hurricane Sandy for Mitt to overcome.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Go hide under your bed.
Correct that oversampled D to a rational +4 Dem sample and you get Romney 49, 0bama 47 which is right in line with all the other polling out there.