The way I see it this election boils down to 2 things. Will Republicans turn out in force? and Can Obama keep the heightened turnout that he had in 2008?
In the case of the latter, I am not overly concerned. There is no evidence at all that there is any enthusiasm in these groups (mostly young people, and minorities, especially outside of the inner cities).
Republican turnout is always the wild-card. In 2008, they didn’t come out in large numbers. And of those that did, many went with Obama. If Republican turnout is similar to 2008, then this is a close election, with Obama probably winning.
I know that earlier you had said that Republican turnout would be down, despite much higher levels of enthusiasm, because many were becoming independent. The flaw in that argument is that you would expect an increase in the number of independents, as a result. Once again, that isn’t showing up in the polls (by and large).
I have been looking for any evidence that Obama has kept his coalition together, or that Republicans turnout is going to be depressed. But, objectively, I cannot find any. Just the opposite. It appears that Republican turnout will be very high, independents will at a minimum lean towards Romney (with decent evidence that they will go strongly to him), and that the new voters of 4 years ago are apathetic.
The more optimistic posters here are seeing what you see, and taking it into account. They are much more objective, in general, than you give them credit for. It is just that we are looking at all of the data, and are generally not as confident that made-for-tv polls are anything other than reflections of conventional wisdom.
No, no, I was saying that more right leaning voters are telling pollsters they are independent rather than Republican. That is the reason you are seeing such high D+ polls, and yet independents breaking so hard for Romney in the same polls. Now, there are different polls that push people further than regular "state of the race" polls for party ID. Those are the ones showing, such as Rasmussen's release today, higher Republican self identification. But most polls don't do that and that is why you are seeing, even in the Fox News polls, such high D+ numbers.
Republican turnout will be higher than 2008. I don't think it will be down. The problem is, I don't think it's enough. I've seen a lot of these elections where we seem to have the excitement on our side against a tired Dem incumbent. Yet they'll win and a lot of folks on our side will be mystified. You just can not underestimate the Democrat turnout machine. It's far more impressive than ours. It is just easier for them since their voters are all packed into urban areas. They can just door to door in these minority urban areas and haul them to the polls since they are all going to vote for the free stuff a Democrat promises them.
I have been looking for any evidence that Obama has kept his coalition together, or that Republicans turnout is going to be depressed. But, objectively, I cannot find any.
Obama has kinda lost his shine. He's not as cool these days and the things like the youth turnout will be down. But this country is on a downward spiral of dependency and demographics are working against us.
Anyway, I am quite confident I am right. Hussein is going to win a narrow victory in my view. But lets hope I am wrong. At least we are highly likely to hold the House and perhaps even add a seat or two. Unfortunately we had some Senate candidate fiasco's again as in 2010. I dunno why these guy's can't just recite a canned answer when it comes to rape/abortion, but it looks like Akin and Mourdock have blown it. That's one pick up chance shot, and we are going to lose a seat in Indiana. I think Brown goes down too in MA also.