Well it isn’t my job on the line so the panic among pollsters is understandable this cycle but given the obvious systemic biases from 2008 as new patterns and baselines emerge they will hopefully be able to at least roughly pick this up, account for the new information and adjust their projections accordingly.
I have been doing some quick and dirty math on Daily RAS and here is what his topline numbers seem to be on DAILY BASIS. This means you have to add THREE of them and then divide by 3 to get the Daily Topline number that he reports
The point of this exercise is to see what the good days and what the bad days are. By my math, FRI was the worst polling day for the Governor. I think that is when the "euphoria" of Gov Christie and Pres Obama was reported
I have not finished my full calculations but I would say that Saturday's poll was "even" between the two. If my analysis is correct AND the Governor has a decent or even a tied polling day today, he should move ahead by a point or two as the FRI falls off
DATE DAY OBAMA ROMNEY
28-Oct SUN 47 50
29-Oct MON 47 47
30-Oct TUE 47 50
31-Oct WED 47 50
1-Nov THU 47 47
2-Nov FRI 50 47
3-Nov SAT 47 50