Posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:26 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Romney lost 5 points among democrats, Obama gained 7. Rasmussen has apparently a sample with Dem at 38-39%. This 12 points swing among democrats means a difference of 0.12*38 = 4.56% or 0.12*39 = 4.68% And that's why Romney is not any longer up by 4 but tie.
McCain got 90% of the GOP base NO WAY Romney gets only 87%.
NHWinGut, my brother from another mother (unless you are a gal, then my sister from another mother),
You and I are in agreement that a couple of numbers sound COMPLETELY off in the cross-tabs
First of all, I hope you are feeling better. You were sorely missed.
I will donate $100 to any charity of your choice if the Governor gets less than 93% of self identified Republicans.
Secondly, I don’t buy the low Independents number. Thirdly, the Democrat number is too high
Fourthly, I refused to believe the Hispanic/Asian RT/WT
Scott Rasmussen is a respected pollster, but I feel that post Sandy his data got skewed
I think WED and THU were bad polling days, in terms of people he was able to connect with
It will all come down to turnout. Whichever side gets the most people to show up, will win. Actually, the R side will need to be at least 3% ahead in order to overcome vote fraud.
Here's the disconnect in so many of these polls. Either this is a lie or the polls aren't tied.
I'm no math wizard but can do basic arithmetic. I assume Rassmussen can, as well.
Look, I’ll set aside my bias for a moment and just look at something.
We now have polls that show PA, MI, MN, and WI too close to call. Obama won those by double digits in ‘08,
That alone should tell all of us that the national polls should be taken with a grain of salt, if that. SOMETHING DOESN’T SMELL RIGHT FOLKS. The wave crashes ashore in 2 days!!! Make sure you are all a part of it!!!
Yup. Christie Cream Larry sinclaired Obama.
Post 26 is why I believe we will win Tuesday.
Most medically trained people will not vote someone into the presidency whom they can easily imagine being carted off every two months with an IV and an oxygen canul up his nose.
Never going to happen.
Anyway, if anyone thinks that this Bamsy/Christie make out session came to any good in the Northeast, check again.
Long Island Newsday, in the land of generators and 4 hour gas lines, just endorsed Romney- well, it was more of a slapfest to Hussein, but LI Newsday doing this is, in that particular culture, just gigantic, no pun intended.
Who among us knows ANY republican or conservative that is NOT fired up about voting for Romney/Ryan Tuesday?
If we held our nose and voted for McLame 4 years ago, why would less of us support this ticket?
RAS is just wrong.
I’ll tell you what, a tie is good thing right now. It may not be good for our blood pressure, but you can bet it will be massive motivation for turn out.
We win when the final pre-polls are tied. Hands down.
Obama and Romney are both playing on mostly BLUE state turf. Romney is running the sort of campaign winning camps run, optimistic, hopeful, bland. Obama is running the sort of campaign losers run, nasty, desperate and shrill.
Obama is not acting like a candidate whose internal polling is showing him winning.
Broken Glass time.
Is SoFlo a PMS reference rather than a geographical allusion? Change it to MoTro and things should start looking up.
Yes, RR is either tied or ahead here which does not square. Ras is playing the horse race all the way.
Cheer up.
Look at the map. Obama is having to defend WI, PA, and MN this weekend (not to mention polls showing MI could be in play). Those states went for Obama by an average of 14 points in 2008.
Look at the crowds. Romney’s are like crusades. Obama’s are in HS gymnasiums.
We are going to win this thing.
Benghazi changed it.
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