Posted on 11/04/2012 6:56:26 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Sunday, November 04, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows the race tied with President Obama and Mitt Romney each attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. See daily tracking history.
These figures include both those who have already voted and those likely to vote. Obama leads among those who have already voted, while Romney leads among those deemed likely to vote. Thirty-nine percent (39%) of voters are projected to be Democrats and 37% Republicans. Both candidates do well within their own party, while Romney has a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.
One key to the outcome on Election Day will be the racial and ethnic mix of the electorate. In 2008, approximately 74% of voters were white. The Obama campaign has argued that this will fall a couple of percentage points in 2012 with an increase in minority voting. Others have noted the increased enthusiasm among white voters and the decreased enthusiasm among Hispanic voters and suggest that white voters might make up a slightly larger share of the electorate this time around. It is significant because Romney attracts 58% of the white vote, while Obama has a huge lead among non-white voters.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
We finally have the DEFINITIVE split from Rasmussen
D/R/I: 39/37/24
UNBELIEVABLY Low Independent number
UNBELIEVABLY High Democrat number
Only 87% of Republicans voting for the Governor, as per Rasmussen.
Plug in the EXACT breakdown just with a 95% Republican vote for the Governor and you will get:
R: 51.53 ((37*0.95)+(39*.10)+(52*0.24))
D: 46.88 ((37*0.05)+(39*.89)+(43*0.24))
So, even if I use D+2 and the ONLY change I make is that I expect 95% of Republicans to vote for the Governor, here is the result I get using the D/R/I of 39/37/24
Gov Romney: 52
Pres Obama: 47
That is what I have said all along!!!
Screw the polls, there isn’t a single one telling the truth, frankly I’m glad they are trying to paint it as a dead heat relying upon hype and drama to keep the MSM energized.
Of which I am ignoring. Making my Bluray player work overtime lately, no live news or shows PERIOD.
[ IF Romney loses this, I put 100% of the blame at the feet of Chris Christie.]
Totally agree. Christie can kiss his Presidential aspirations goodbye as well.
Oh for pete’s sake, get a grip.
Idiots like you haven’t seen the CO Romney event last night.
Does that look like a man who will lose?
I saw the Obama rally in VA and Clinton spoke more than O did. That’s telling!
Will RAS release this tracking poll Monday and Tuesday?
I do agree when you look at the internals, that the Hurricane did have some impact last week. Whether it was a shift/bounce, hard to tell. But just the fact the election was off the front page for 5 days, impacts polling perceptions.
In the end, I cannot see Obama getting a lasting impact from the hurricane. This has always been an election about the economy and the role of government. That did not change last week.
Romney trending back up with independents is very good to see. He definitely has the enthusiasm gap. Both based on polling and anecdotal evidence like crowd sizes and campaign messages. The fact that Romney is even close in PA, MN, MI, & WI tells me this race has to be trending his way. And that the top line polls are not picking it up.
Also, Romney has closed or taken the lead in early voting in several swing states compared to 2008. In OH alone, there is a flip of 263k early votes from 2008 to 2012. Obama won OH by 262k. And McCain actually won election day in OH by 60k votes. Even Axelrod this morning didn’t try and dispute the numbers of Fox News Sunday.
In the end, Romney will win Independents. Obama won them by 8 in 2008. So if Romney even wins them by 8 (which is on the low side based on all the polling), they I can’t see him losing the election. Gallup/Pew/RAS have all released Party ID polls in the last week, showing anywhere from a 12-15 point Party ID shift from D to R since 2008. And these are large sample polls with a MOE of 1% (Gallup was over 9,000 respondents).
And finally, Romney will win because he has the enthusiasm gap. Obama had it in 2008, but Romney is drawing crowds 10x Obama in the same states this time. We saw what happened in 2010, and nothing has changed that anger and frustration the last 2 years. In fact, a vast part of the country is even more frustrated than in 2010. The economy is actually going in reverse the last 18 months. And the USSC upheld Obamacare.
Romney is a businessman and has run a well organized and strategic campaign. I am confident his GOTV efforts will carry the day on Tuesday. (we have already seen it in the early voting).
I am just not buying Rasmussen’s crosstabs with base. Sorry. And you know I am not some conspiracy guy. I see the data and try to analyze it objectively.
But historically (even John McCain in a horrid GOP year), every GOP candidate gets at least 93% of GOP voters. And historically, the GOP always outperforms Dems with crossovers. Even, again, John McCain did in 2008.
And so with the enthusiasm off the charts, I cannot believe that Romney is only pulling in 87% of Repubs - not with everything on the line.
Here’s the deal. With the base support generally being 90%, every 3 points of base you add to Romney would result in a full point in support, i.e. 90 x.36 = 1.08.
For example if Romney were simply pulling in 90% of GOP he’d be at 50%. If he pulls in 93% as is the historical standard, he is at 51%.
This low GOP support will not stand, I guarantee it. Not looking at the size of the rallies, the enthusiasm online, the early voting, etc. GOP is over-performing in every category. While the Dems are under-performing.
Did I say I thought he would lose? I said he wasn’t going to get the decisive victory that he should.
The national turnout in 2008, I think, was +8 dem.
No way that happens this time for the dems.
Thank you Friend!
As I suspected, RAS is playing loose with the numbers.
Thanks for providing the internals, and your perspective.
I agree with your logical results.
That’s encouraging. Do you know what the cross over numbers were like in 2008? I know McCain won the crossover vote and I *believe* had like 92-93% Republican support, no way Romney gets less then that.
ABC WAS PO said Romney was going to get 97% of the GOP vote.
Hi SE
I did not see this post prior to mine re: Base Support.
This is exactly what I was talking about.
No way, no how that Romney only pulls in 87% of Repubs in the most important election in history.
It’s not a sour grapes post. It’s just historically a fact. It’s an important data point.
GOTV or it's four more of Obama-Biden malaise.
Vote & drag 'right thinking' people to the polls with you.
I know, it’s like Clinton wants Hussein to win this thing more than he, himself does.
I guess they don’t know how to get Hillary out of jail without the win.
Thwy’ll have to figure that out. Maybe their Arab buddies will have to come through for them and then we’ll have to go through a 9/11 all over again, just like in 2001, when their friend, the absolute nutcase, Algore was supposed to get in.
Romney, watch out, foreigners in high places are expecting a Dem win.
Read up and put nothing, nothing past these baby killers.
Step away from the internet.
Do something productive to help us win.
Romney winning only 87% of republicans is simply incorrect.
Long Island Newsday just endorsed Romney.
Long Island Newsday.
Huge and serious.
There are a lot of vain voters whom would never vote for Christie due to his weight issues. Sounds horrible, but there is no denying many women will vote for the physically better looking candidate, or Blacks voting for a Black person for no other reason than the color of their skin.
Having said that, some weight loss and a change of Party to Indy could be in Christies future.
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