If you are keeping score, in slightly less than four years President Obama has presided over an eleven-point decrease in his partys standing with the American people, 15 points if you include those voters who lean one way or the other. The Pew Research Center has posted party identification data going all the way back to 1929. The data series suggests that this deterioration in the Democrats standing with American voters is nearly unprecedented. The only comparable meltdown occurred during the tumultuous years of the Vietnam War and the birth of the Great Society under LBJ, when the Democrats also suffered an eleven-point loss relative to their Republican rivals. If you are wondering which president defied the odds and steered his party forward during his time in office, try Ronald Reagan. From 1981 to 1988 the Gippers principled conservative leadership whittled the Democrats initial 14-point edge down to a mere five points. To be sure, the most recent spate of national polls include more Republicans than did the surveys conducted earlier in October. Nevertheless, they still give more advantage to the Democrats than Gallups aggregate data suggest should be the case. ABC/Wall Street Journals most recent poll, for example, includes 34 percent Democrats and 30 percent Republicans, the Investors Business Daily poll sets the Democrats advantage at seven points (38 percent to 31 percent), and an Associated Press survey comes in two percentage points more Democratic than Republican. Correcting these polls so that there was a Republican edge in the sample of voters consistent with Gallups finding would hand Romney a lead between five to ten points. Imagine the run on smelling salts at Mother Jones and MSNBC if that were to happen?
You’re welcome. Happy to add my input. :)
There’s never any need to put any faith in any of the newspaper, network, or university conducted polls because they’re all liberals, and they want outcomes that reflect their bias. PEW Research for example, is a real stinker and the WAPo is laughable.
Gallop and Rasmussen are polling companies. They need and try to be accurate.