Poll: Maine Is On The Presidential Map; Romney Has Chance To Pick Up Key Electoral Vote

PR newswire ^ | Oct 31, 2012 | N/A

[Jet Jaguar]

According to a new Kimball Political Consulting survey, Governor Romney has a chance to pick up an Electoral College vote in Maine, which could determine the Presidential election. Maine is one of two states, Nebraska is the other, that award electoral college votes based on the popular vote in their Congressional districts. Maine's 2nd Congressional district is polling 50% in support of Barack Obama and 45% in support of Mitt Romney with 5% undecided.

According to the pollster, Spencer Kimball, "there are several indicators suggesting the President is not vulnerable to defeat." Kimball points out that the President is still in a strong position with a 54% favorable opinion versus Romney who is at 43%. Independents are also breaking heavily for the President, 55% to 37% (9% undecided). Female voters are breaking to the President by 11 points (53% to 42%) while male voters are split between the candidates at 48%.

However, Kimball explained that Romney does have a chance to steal an electoral vote if he can get 95% of Republican voters to the polls, as well as independents friendly to him, which is possible in this election based on Republican excitement across the nation. At the very least, this may force Maine into play during this last week…possibly pulling staff from other states.

The top issue for Romney supporters is the deficit (44%) and this is also the most important issue for undecided voters (37%). Voters who said the deficit was the most important issue overwhelmingly support Romney (70% to 24%) compared to voters who said jobs were most important supported Romney over Obama 53% to 44%.

[campaignPete R-CT]

I see a way for bambi to get to 268
I see a way for bambi to get to 272
I see a way for bambi to get to 271

subtracting ONE from those does nothing. So the MAINE thing ain’t working right now.

I do see a way to 270 if bambi wins COL or VA.
SO maybe.

[Jet Jaguar]

I don’t think it will matter. Just posting for reference for Tuesday.

[LS]

Just one more in a slew of polls showing blue turning red, or, at least, purple. MN, ME, OR.

[campaignPete R-CT]

if Bambi gets OH WI NH ... that could give him 269
so minus ONE, breaks the tie. otherwise, the HOUSE breaks the tie (for mITT). A big deal? maybe.

NH CD#1 & CD#2 are key ... 4 EVs. NH could decide it.
OH NV IA and NH gives BAMBI 271. (Minus ONE for Maine is 270.)

[zencycler]

There are a few scenarios where this 1 vote would make a difference by getting Romney to either 269 (House makes him Pres.) or to 270 (Ryan gets to be his VP). Yes, some of these are unlikely combinations, but anything can happen:

1) Wins NH, loses CO, wins (WI or MN) + (IA or NV) = 268, plus 1 = 269 (listed as one, but that's actually four possible combinations)

2) Wins NH, CO, WI and MN, loses VA = 268, plus 1 = 269.

3) Wins NH and PA, loses VA = 268, plus 1 = 269

4) Loses NH and CO, wins PA = 268, plus 1 = 269

5) Loses VA and NH, wins (OH and IA) or OH and NV) = 268, plus 1 = 269

6) Loses NH, wins IA, CO and NV = 269, plus 1 = 270 (so Ryan gets to VP - which will be very important not only to Romney's success, but for setting up Ryan as a future candidate).

7) Wins NH + (WI or MN) + OR = 269, plus 1 = 270.

There may be other combinations too, and hopefully Romney will have over 300 electoral votes, so none of this will matter. But just in case, I'll take that 1 from Maine, if we can get it, as an insurance policy against these, or any other curveballs which may come our way next week.

[sox_the_cat]

I live in the 2nd district and I hope it goes red. When you look at the 2nd district in Maine, it’s a huge part of the state. It would blend in nicely with the red that dominates the large mass of this country.

[july4thfreedomfoundation]

I live in Maine’s second congressional district, too.

I see plenty of Obama lawn signs, but I see more Romney lawn signs than Obama signs.

Like you said, the second congressional district is a huge area.....half the state.

[SamAdams76]

I live in the 2nd district and I hope it goes red. When you look at the 2nd district in Maine, it’s a huge part of the state. It would blend in nicely with the red that dominates the large mass of this country.

Imagine if the other 48 states also assign EVs by congressional districts....we may never see another Democrat president again!

[ROCKLOBSTER]

I live in Maine’s second congressional district

Me too.

CD2 rocks. Portland sucks.