I looked at the elections for the past 60 years that were essentially a two-party race. I came up with this graph, which shows how the democrat candidate's popular vote translated to electoral votes:
Posted on 11/02/2012 7:14:02 AM PDT by SoftwareEngineer
On the Friday before Election Day, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll showed the race tied at 48% for Obama and 48% for Romney.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Who said they were wrong? I think they are probably mostly correct, within the margin of error.
Yup. America's epitaph will read "You Didn't Build That".
I agree. I was saying sandy could turn out to be O’s perfect storm. I hope I’m wrong.
sandy bounce....many people are fools...that’s why most were not prepared for the storm in the first place....gonna be a long Tuesday...or another gore v. bush...
Romney needs to pull out all the stops. Get some ads going NOW about Obama denying rescue efforts and lying about what was to blame. Make it so that the networks have to bring it up. Pull no punches. Forget Mr. Nice Guy. Also ads pointing out that the UE rate went up again.
“Look at the crowd size everyone. Someone just posted only 2500 came out to see Obama speak in Columbus, OH”
This the point that pollsters have a hard time getting their hands around, and that is voter enthusiasm. People can tell a pollster they will vote for Obama, but will they. What is the enthusiasm of the fringe Obama voter?
We will have to wait until Tuesday, but 2800 in Ohio 4 days before an election tells me a lot.
He is
“When he took office 32 million were on food stamps, today it is 47 million. If Obama is reelected, it means the country has already reached a tipping point demographically and the Dems will be the permanent majority party. And the country is finished. I hope we have not reached that point yet. We will see in four days.”
I believe you are right.
I’ve been on record since early this year, warning that this will be a close election in both the popular vote and in the electoral college.
Indeed, we may be facing a “2000 situation” again — where Romney might actually -lose- the popular vote, but eek out a victory in EC.
I’ve always paid close attention to your postings on immigration and demographics, and I don’t post much, but tend towards the same subjects myself.
Have you ever seen the film by Arthur Penn with Dustin Hoffman and Chief Dan George entitled “Little Big Man”? In that film, after the battle of Little Big Horn, Jack Crabb (Hoffman) is rescued from the massacre and brought before Old Lodge Skins (Dan George). Crabb says to the Chief something to the effect of “you won”, but the Chief remains somber. He then says, “we won today — but we won’t win tomorrow”. And then explains that no matter what can be said about the white man, “there are just too many of them”. He knew that in time, the Cheyenne would be forever outnumbered. Demographics.
It’s unpopular to express an opinion as such, but I sense that conservatives face a similar future in America — at least the America that exists today, and the America that seems to be headed in the direction that it’s going.
Thus, the ever-increasing number of people on food stamps.
Thus, “the 47%” — that will soon be 48%, and then 49%, and....... then.....?
That doesn’t mean I’m giving up — I’ll go to the polls on November 6 and do what I have to do. As I hope everyone reading this will do as well.
Conservatism to me is about “reality”. About [first] being wise enough to see reality for what it is, and [secondly] being able to understand how to go forth based on (and often in spite of) what we have learned reality to actually be.
But all too often, folks on the conservative side seem to eschew reality as readily as do the ‘rats on the left.
Thus, in months past, we saw exhortations to wit:
“The dog catcher could be Obama!”
“The DOG could beat Obama”
“A ham sandwich could beat Obama!”
I’ve asked this before, I’ll ask again: what happened?
But like you, I already understand:
Demographics.
I’ll gladly eat these words if Mr. Romney enjoys a big victory next Tuesday.
But until that happens, this is the way I see it...
I will go Gault. Move to AK.
depressing article.
Un- believable how happy the dems are with such economic catastrophe.
Obama’s continued support is concrete proof that dems are lazy and don’t want to ever work.
If Obama wins , the US is done , forever beyond repair.
The main discussion on FR will become
bolt or revolt
bolt or revolt
I'm hopeful there will be a "win some, lose some" discussion for the more sane among us. Politics is like baseball -- there's always a next year.
Ras is bringing his national polling more in line with the state polling, which has never really changed much -- Romney's never been able to move up much in the states that count. Oh well, live by the electoral college, die by the electoral college.
So much gloom and doom. The race is close. Romney may win ( I hope ) or Obama may win. Either way life will go on and so will the fight for the freedom endowed by our creator. There is always hope... otherwise you are without faith. What ever happens is allowed to happen.
By the way.... Just my opinion but I don’t believe that Sandy is really going to help Obama come election day. Look at the news coming out of New Jersey. Long lines for gas no power and cold weather coming in. Perhaps a 2 point bounce from palling around with Christie. Gone by Monday... people are fickle and are un/underemployed.
What does it say that Obama is spending part of his final days in states he won handily in 08 and Romney and Ryan are going to supposedly safe blue states
I looked at the elections for the past 60 years that were essentially a two-party race. I came up with this graph, which shows how the democrat candidate's popular vote translated to electoral votes:
Lets take these polls at face value.
48% of America wants socialism.
And it all boils down to turnout.
If the Romney supporters turn out like crazy on Tuesday, they win.
If the hussein supporters turn out and commit enough fraud, they win.
Given that it is so close, I think turnout favors the challenger. However, it’s gonna be close.
My prediction: Romney wins the entire south plus NH, and this ends up being decided in the midwest. And the electoral map looks remarkably like that of the U.S./C.S.A. in 1862.
Our party actually has a spine on this issue and the laws have been getting passed. Hasn't stopped the lefty courts from blocking, delaying and overturning them though. Where we need to get a spine is on the courts, following something like the document on how to block the courts that Newt produced last year during the primary.
“There will be no conservative wave in’16. Romney loses and it’s over because a majority will be created by the Demos that will last a long long time.”
You’re right. But not necessarily for electoral reasons. I think the electoral map will look an awful lot like the US/CSA map circa 1862. It wouldn’t be long after a hussein victory that some states will reconsider whether they wish to continue with the current arrangement. And therein lies one path to long term leftist victory. They can do the electoral math minus say a state like TX, or AZ, or LA or AL.
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