[SoftwareEngineer]

Nathan,

Hi! So, here is the disconnect.

When Rasmussen polls and asks people, they say that they are R+2 or R+3. That is what has FReepers so excited

However, that being said, that is ONLY indicative of the general populace. That MAY NOT reflect the actual turnout.

What Rasmussen seems to be saying is that the President’s team is more organized and will get more people out to vote. His “vaunted ground effort”

So, he is saying that despite the R’s being more numerous this time around, more D’s will show up and vote

Now, there are many like LS, NHWinGut, Ravi etc who will disagree with that assertion, as they feel that the R’s are very motivated

The phrase to watch is “Broken glass Republicans”. Republicans so committed to voting that they will crawl over broken glass to get to the voting booth

[snarkytart]

Where is Ras getting his information that zerO’s ground game is better this time around and his supporters are more likely to vote on election day vs Romney supporters?

[tatown]

If Ras really thinks that (which Gallup disagrees with) it flys in the face of every poll that shows a strong enthusiasm edge for the GOP.

[nathanbedford]

If Rasmussen or the Democrats are hanging their hopes on their ground game they ought to consider that in the 2 critical states, Wisconsin and Ohio, the Republicans have demonstrated first-class ground games. Unquestionably, the Republican ground game in Wisconsin is first-class and there is no reason to believe that it will not prevail again as it has three times in a row.

Republican ground game in Ohio in 2004 was massive and effective and we are told that the Republicans have far exceeded the metrics in 2012.

If Rasmussen is just pulling this reversal out of his hat, it does not mean a thing. I note that he also said last night on Fox that the Democrats were depending on the youth vote and that was unreliable and the Republicans are favored by the more elderly who are very much motivated for Romney. He gives the edge to Romney, albeit grudgingly.

What I am driving at is that there is nothing on the ground anywhere that says that the Republicans in Ohio and Wisconsin should not prevail in a race tied in the polls. Even if we concede that the Democrats have crafted a good ground game in Ohio in 2008, one might suspect that a good portion of that game was simply the general public hysteria for Obama which has markedly abated.

Where is the impetus for Obama? What will drive people to the polls to support Obama? Why should he be able to break through his 47% ceiling? I simply do not see any reason to believe that the Democrats will perform +2 over the Republicans and this leaves quite apart the distribution of undecideds and independents for Romney.

It has always been the rule of thumb that the tie goes the Republicans, unless the rats can steal it.