[nathanbedford]

1. If Romney wins Ohio he does not need New Hampshire, Iowa, or Nevada.

2. If Romney fails to take Ohio he needs one of those three and Wisconsin.

3. Romney is very likely to take New Hampshire and likely to take Iowa especially in view of these data from this poll.

4. Romney is very likely to win Ohio.

5. Romney is very likely to win Wisconsin.

6. Romney is very likely to win Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa yielding 295 electoral votes.

7. Romney has a reasonable chance of winning Pennsylvania or Michigan.

8. If Romney wins New Hampshire he turns the tables dramatically on Obama because Obama now must now run the table winning: Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and one of Iowa or Nevada.

9. Obama must win all of these states with a ceiling of 47%, in the teeth of Romney's momentum, with undecideds who are breaking two out of three for Romney, with Barone predicting the affluent suburbs going to Romney, with the voter intensive older generations breaking overwhelmingly for Romney, with early voting breaking for Romney by five points according to Gallup, with the women's gap closed, and with palpable intensity on the side of Romney – whose position would you rather be in?

[GOPsterinMA]

Excellent analysis!!!

FWIW, I’ve been predicting for months that Romney will win NH and ME-02, along with WI.

[Wpin]

One correction...Gallup has Romney up by 7%! In survey of those who already have voted!!! sample size 3,300 +

Obama, the traitor...is going to Pennsylvania...Romney to Wisconsin...they are fighting on democrat land!!! Not to mention strength for Romney with Independents...

The national polls are still weighting plus democrats in a year when all signs are that it will be a plus Republican year. Additionally, I believe there will be a substantial (statistically) crossover voting by democrats for Romney.

I am confident on the one hand, but very fearful on the other...if Obama wins...I fear for our nation...