[SamAdams76]

Romney is going to have additional human beings voting for him on Tuesday. I’m not a particular fan of early voting but start making way for additional votes for Romney.

[Deagle]

Rove may or may not be right but this election and I’d predict that future elections will NOT depend on these beltway Republicans. Time we moved on and ignore most of these folks and get government in control.

[Combat_Liberalism]

I have more faith in Rove’s constrained and conservative analysis than in Dick Morris’ view. 51-48 is a clear win and good enough to keep the lawyers out of it.

[Doc Savage]

Rove is like a stale fart that lingers in the room. RINO Moron.

[TonyInOhio]

You beat me to it. :)

The excerpt chopped the key paragraph:

Adrian Gray, who oversaw the Bush 2004 voter-contact operation and is now a policy analyst for a New York investment firm, makes the point that as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election.

Quinnipiac and PPP can keep up their fantasy polls, but the fact that Obama's winning margin in 2008 has been wiped out in early voting this time means Romney is the favorite to win Ohio and the election.

[Oldeconomybuyer]

The popular vote will be the same split as 2008:

Romney - 52.9%
Obama - 45.7

[comebacknewt]

I think his analysis is premature until we see whether or not the Kenyan’s “hurricane bounce” is fleeting or more permanent.

Had the hurricane not occurred, I would say Rove is 100% on the money here.

It still may prove to be correct, and I too am seeing a very close Romney win, but I personally am going to track the polls a couple more days before I am ready to make a definitive final prediction.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

Math ... Obama won Ohio by 263K in 08.

"as of Tuesday, 530,813 Ohio Democrats had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot. That's down 181,275 from four years ago. But 448,357 Ohio Republicans had voted early or had requested or cast an absentee ballot, up 75,858 from the last presidential election".

R's up vs '08 already by 257K.

1. Obama went into election day in 2008 way ahead.
2. … so far ahead in fact, that McCain BEAT him on election day, and still lost.
3. Now … given that Obama won in 2008 by 263K votes … meaning he was LEADING going into election day by well over that number, how bad is this? … forget the bogus polls, he's not even going into the election with a statistical lead. (about 6K now) ... and indy's hate him.

I've seen nothing so far that defies the idea that Romney wins Ohio by 4.5% - 5.5%

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping.

[1035rep]

Early Ohio voters age 18-29

Republican 12,612
Democrat 9,501