Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner

wsj.com ^ | Karl Rove

[tsowellfan]

A crucial element: the mix of Democrats and Republicans who show up this election.

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.

The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets.

For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48% in the last Gallup; he got 49.2% at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37% in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5% in the balloting...

[Mr. Silverback]

You’re right to be cautious, but I just can’t see how with this disastrous economy, Obama losing early voting in the swing states by 7 points and a wrong track number that’s been huge for at least two years, a couple of days of footage of Obama walking around wrecked houses is going to change the dynamic.

BTW, Obama’s in WI today and he has had to bring Katy Perry with him. That means...

1. He needs a free concert to fill the space in a state he won by 18 points in 2008.

2. He needs to work the youth vote, which he turned out massively and won by a bazillion points in 2008.

[Mr. Silverback]

You may be right, but I think the mistake you’re making is thinking that people who can be described as drones or idiots are willing to vote for Romney in the first place. Oh, and then there’s the fact that anyone that doubleminded will see the jobs report on Friday and say, “Whoa Mama!”