Rove: Sifting the Numbers for a Winner

wsj.com ^ | Karl Rove

[tsowellfan]

A crucial element: the mix of Democrats and Republicans who show up this election.

It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney.

He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led in 19, President Obama in seven, and five were tied. Mr. Romney averaged 48.4%; Mr. Obama, 47.2%. The GOP challenger was at or above 50% in 10 polls, Mr. Obama in none.

The number that may matter the most is Mr. Obama's 47.2% share. As the incumbent, he's likely to find that number going into Election Day is a percentage point or so below what he gets.

For example, in 2004 President George W. Bush had 49% in the final Gallup likely-voter track; he received 50.7% on Election Day. In 1996, President Clinton was at 48% in the last Gallup; he got 49.2% at the polls. And in 1992, President George H.W. Bush was at 37% in the closing Gallup; he collected 37.5% in the balloting...

[LS]

It will be bigger than that. Romney will take IA, WI, NH, and probably PA. Maybe MI. The only one I’ve just about given up on is NV, but it depends on how big Washoe is and how many Is show up. Gary Johnson could be the difference there.

[comebacknewt]

I think that is exactly where we are headed again except Ohio will be even closer this time.

[LS]

Nope. Won’t be close with these numbers. It looks like about four points . . . pretty much where I had it six months ago.

[SoftwareEngineer]

LS wrote: Whew. Got hairy there for a while with “concern” trolls pounding me every day. SoftwareEngineer had the same experience. Ravi, you too?

What I would like to say to everyone is that there is not much more we all can do but to volunteer. At this point, even money is useless. The Governor and the RNC are sitting on tens of millions of dollars The best we can do is knock on doors and call. That is what is needed I am not going to BS you guys. I truly feel that this is a 52-47 win. I put myself on the record in Perdogg's official prediction thread Again, I could be wrong, LS could be wrong, Ravi could be wrong, Barone could be wrong, Gallup could be wrong, Roeas could be wrong. As a scientist, I will tell you that any possibility is possible (ask me about string theory :-)) However, we have VERY high odds that the Governor will carry the night and carry it with style. So, let me be the ANTI Nate Silver. I give the odds of the Governor becoming our next President at 75.365%

[comebacknewt]

I pray you are correct.

Rove’s and Adrian Gray’s numbers are certainly supportive of what you are saying. I’m just a bit more pessimistic — probably my nature.

Oh, and thanks again for all you are doing for the cause both on here and in Ohio. When FR establishes a Hall of Fame, I think you are a first ballot inductee.

[MHT]

Do you even think we will know Ohio on Nov. 6? Only if Romney or Obama is the clear winner, early. RNC has $65 MM not being spent, probably saved for attorney fees. Ann Coulter is worried about the Dems stealing Ohio. If they can’t steal it, they’ll sue for it.

[MHT]

Do you even think we will know Ohio on Nov. 6? Only if Romney or Obama is the clear winner, early. RNC has $65 MM not being spent, probably saved for attorney fees. Ann Coulter is worried about the Dems stealing Ohio. If they can’t steal it, they’ll sue for it.

[Ravi]

Will check it out

[TonyInOhio]

Do you even think we will know Ohio on Nov. 6?

Probably, but it could be a bit past Midnight - as I recall, the 2004 race was called for George Bush at about 1:00am the following morning, after Cuyahoga County finally quit trying to manufacture votes.

A lot depends on whether clear trends from the bellwether counties are evident early, and I suspect they will be.

[tsowellfan]

At this point, even money is useless. The Governor and the RNC are sitting on tens of millions of dollars The best we can do is knock on doors and call.

Exactly! It's footwork now and posting articles and breaking stories.

[LS]

LOL, bravo

[Raycpa]

I give the odds of the Governor becoming our next President at 75.365%

Troll. Romney is at least 75.428%

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping

[Jet Jaguar]

Poll ping.

[Bailee]

I got OH going toward Romney 52-53%. I think Romney will have given his acceptance speech by 3am EST. 289 EV for Romney and 229 for Obammy. PA will be the closest to a tie not sure who wins. 309EVs sure would look nice.

[Mountain Mary]

The damn hurricane and Crispy’s praise of Bambi is worth a loss of at least two percentage points on election day.

Rush said today, “who would change their vote to BO because of his response to the storm?”. My answer: drones/idiots.

So Rom. absolutely has to win by a wide enough margin to make up for this loss.

[1035rep]

Early Ohio voters age 18-29

Republican 12,612
Democrat 9,501

[eddie willers]

I was just pointing out in 2008 he played it fair and had Obama winning and was poo-pooed on here over it.

Final Rove electoral map sees large Obama win over McCain

[CPT Clay]

Romney wins Ohio by 200k?

[Mr. Silverback]

Ah, but his numbers are solid unless Ras and Gallup have lost the ability to poll accurately AND the data from the Republican Secretary of State in Ohio has been falsified.