I wonder why all of a sudden nobody is demanding to see the internals of a poll, ha ha.
Regarding internals, the college does provide some, although not directly a party breakdown. At least, I didn’t see one.
Battleground Watch has posted that the poll is D+4. 2008 was D+6, 2004 was R+4. Thus, D+4 may be a little on the high side for the Ds. I think it will be closer to even. But D+4 isn’t indefensible.
So, we have a poll that seems to have reasonable internals, if a little biased to the left, that shows Gov. Romney winning clearly, and outside the margin of error. With 5% undecided. And among the 36% of undecideds who would say which way they were leaning, they were going Romney 3 - 1. But 4% identify a third-party candidate. It would be unlikely that the two or three third-party candidates receiving votes in this poll will actually amount to 4% of the vote on election day. When pressed to choose between the two major candidates, the third-party voters choose the Kenyan almost 3 - 2.
From all this, I’d guess Gov. Romney will take Virginia by about 10 points. Not going to be close.
One hesitation is that the sample isn’t terribly large.
sitetest