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Poll: Storm puts close race on pause (CBS Poll: 0 48%, R 47%, R leads independents by 12%)
See BS ^ | 10-30-12

Posted on 10/30/2012 4:23:23 PM PDT by Arthurio

Before Superstorm Sandy put the presidential race on pause, President Obama held just a one-point lead over Mitt Romney nationally, according to a new CBS News/ New York Times poll, while voters continue to see Romney as stronger on the economy.

In the final days of the campaign, the storm may have changed the dynamics of the race, giving Mr. Obama a chance to display presidential leadership while compelling both the president and Romney to give up valuable days on the campaign trail. Just ahead of Sandy's arrival, however, the presidential race remained close, with Mr. Obama leading Romney among likely voters 48 percent to 47 percent, within the poll's three-point margin of error. The survey was conducted Oct. 25-28, while the storm made landfall in New Jersey on Oct. 29.

With just a week to go before the election, 10 percent of likely voters are still uncommitted, saying they are either undecided or could change their minds about who to vote for. Enthusiasm about voting is higher among Romney's supporters, 68 percent of whom say they are very excited about voting. Among Mr. Obama's supporters, 59 percent say they are very excited. Nearly eight in 10 likely voters now claim to be paying a lot of attention to the campaign, including similar percentages of Obama and Romney voters.

There is still a gender gap in the race: women support the president, 52 percent to 44 percent, while men support Romney, 51 percent to 44 percent. And while each candidate gets strong support from their respective political parties, Romney now holds a 12-point lead among the swing voting group of independents (51 percent to 39 percent). Romney retains the support of white voters, while the President enjoys strong support from non-whites.

(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; hurricanesandy
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1 posted on 10/30/2012 4:23:28 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: Arthurio

Step right up FR concern trolls!! Here is something to wring your hands over today!! Meanwhile Romney is going to win decisively.


2 posted on 10/30/2012 4:25:37 PM PDT by toddausauras (FUBO x 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)
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To: Arthurio

Two things stand out: the enthusiasm gap and the independents gap.

Put those two together and Mitt Romney will win the election. The specific day to day numbers don’t really matter.

But those two tell the entire story about the 2012 election.


3 posted on 10/30/2012 4:26:28 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
This poll was conducted by telephone from October 25-28, 2012 among 898 adults nationwide, including 798 registered voters. The sample size for likely voters is 563. Not all likely voters are assigned the same probability of voting. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. CBS News and The New York Times originally intended for the interviewing for this poll to continue through Tuesday evening. By Sunday the demographic characteristics of the sample were similar to what would have been expected had interviewing continued.

More likely the poll began to trend in Romney's favor, so they terminated the polling.

4 posted on 10/30/2012 4:29:06 PM PDT by Arthurio
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To: toddausauras

Oh yeah. For a CBS poll, this should be a Romney landslide. Notice how they put hope in the storm...forget the suffering people. Hope springs eternal CBS.


5 posted on 10/30/2012 4:29:55 PM PDT by rushmom
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To: Arthurio

The polling sample is small and is probably D+ oversampled. Romney is behind by -1 but that’s not what the internals show.

The internals paint a completely different picture. And when you look at them, you can see that O has no chance. He’s not breaking 50% even in a CBS/NYT poll, which is one of the very worst polls out there.

Its all over.


6 posted on 10/30/2012 4:33:49 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved FrieGrnd Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Thanks Arthurio.


7 posted on 10/30/2012 4:34:38 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: Arthurio

Commie BS dream on... This race is nowhere near close, and the current lousy excuse for a President has done more damage to this nation than any prior!


8 posted on 10/30/2012 4:36:18 PM PDT by Ron C.
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To: toddausauras

“Step right up FR concern trolls!! “


LOL... I think you cut them off at the pass with that one.


9 posted on 10/30/2012 4:38:55 PM PDT by RCFlyer
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To: Arthurio

NBC has gotten very bad, but CBS has been the worst for a long time.


10 posted on 10/30/2012 4:39:16 PM PDT by Williams (No Obama)
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To: Arthurio

This is a D+5 poll, and it still shows Romney up a point from their last poll, which had Dems and Reps both at 32% but independents at 35% for some reason. That is probably because the last poll also showed a 4% advantage to Obama with independents, but this one shows a 12% advantage to Romney - a 16 point swing in a week. Not surprisingly, CBS also reduced the number of independents in this poll by 2%. If you calculate the total change (D/R/I) between the two polls, the effect is more like a D+7 swing.

This is just another example of CBS adjusting the sample to reflect their desired outcome.


11 posted on 10/30/2012 4:42:44 PM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: RCFlyer

Thanks RCFlyer lol.


12 posted on 10/30/2012 5:07:58 PM PDT by toddausauras (FUBO x 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000)
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To: Arthurio

Another poll showing the President in a very precarious spot.

If it weren’t for the unknown nature of the impact of the hurricane, I would be ready to call this one for Romney right now.

Because of that unknown, I will wait until Thursday and Friday’s numbers start coming in. If Obambi is still at 47 - 48% then, I will know he has hit his ceiling and that it is all over.


13 posted on 10/30/2012 5:16:27 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: Arthurio

My simpleminded calculation:

Winner margin over Loser = Independent Margin/3

Assumes turnout R = D and D/R/I = 33/33/33

So Romney should win according to this poll by 52 to 48 based on Romney’s 12% advantage with the Independents.

Note that the one thing that lib pollsters have difficulty fudging is the collected opinion of the Independents. It is what it is and even the Lib pollsters have generally reported it correctly.


14 posted on 10/30/2012 5:16:31 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: Arthurio

If Romney’s advantage among independents is 12% then the poll results are nonsense. When the polling comes back Wednesday I think Obama is in for a bad surprise.


15 posted on 10/30/2012 5:21:08 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: InterceptPoint

The race is “on pause” while they try to show Obama being a leader and getting praise from Republicans for cleaning up from the storm all by hisself.


16 posted on 10/30/2012 5:22:58 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: toddausauras

Concern troll present and accounted for sir!

So as I see it there are two takes on this. The data-based view is that Romney trailing, although close, in many of the states he needs. He is going to be campaigning in Florida and Virginia. Not sure how anyone can think PA is in play when he can’t even lock up the south. Even Rove’s map is still against him.

Then there’s the gut feel that some people here have. Looking at some hard and some circumstantial evidence that suggests Romney is a bit under the radar and will really explode on election day.

I believe the former and not the latter. We all should have learned a lesson from irrational exuberance in 2008.


17 posted on 10/30/2012 5:24:24 PM PDT by paul544
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To: paul544

I don’t recall any irrational exuberance in 2008 at all.

99.9% of this board knew Obama would win, just not by double digits like some of the MSM was trying to claim.


18 posted on 10/30/2012 5:33:09 PM PDT by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: paul544

As I stated to you earlier, this election is NOTHING like 2008. Romney is not another McCain and people have seen 0bama in action (or is it in inaction) for nearly four years. They don’t like what they see in 0bama. He is no longer an unknown quantity full of hope and change.

You really don’t need to be so concerned.


19 posted on 10/30/2012 5:37:30 PM PDT by mplsconservative (Barack Hussein 0bama has American blood on HIS hands!)
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To: mplsconservative

Nothing would make me happier than to be wrong.


20 posted on 10/30/2012 5:48:01 PM PDT by paul544
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