1) The Obama voters of 08 aren't there. This would be busloads of blacks, inner city types. They come in in gaggles. No one is seeing this. A week ago, Obama was here in Dayton, and the Ds had 27 busloads ready to take people to early vote. Ds had three floors ready with tables and people to help them fill out the forms. They expected THOUSANDS . . . got 300.
2) I am told that the Obama voters who ARE coming in are regular "election day" voters, so that the Ds are cannibalizing their election day turnout.
3) Many of the early voters are Rs. My former chairman said it appeared to be 10-15% of all voters this time, as opposed to only 5% early voting Rs last time. But Romney did NOT try to get out "regular" voters to early vote, but rather went after "low propensity voters."
4) I was a little concerned about the Montgomery Co. number, which was up 4000 from 08, but it appears we have a lot of indies. If you assume the indies break 6% to Romney (not much according to most polls), then I put the Montgomery Co. early voter % at 56-44%D. At 12%, that is eight points below what Obama won in 08, when he won the county by about four. In other words, Romney is up, perhaps four, perhaps even more if the indies break harder.
Caveat: this is only one county.
Thank you for your real life information, that is the data I find interesting and helpful. Fortunately (or unfortunately for identifying trends) I live in suburban Kansas City on KS side so no issue with the state. I will say MO was very tight McCain win in 2012, not even close this year, Obama not even putting much in for ads, just a horrific Senate race on the Missouri side. Definitely can tell you much less Obama stickers, yard signs etc. in greater KC area.
Just wanted to say thanks for your on-the-ground analysis, LS.