This poll is very interesting as the data is obviously collated from their daily samples that they use for the daily update
So, two things strike me as unusual about Gallup:
1. They are obviously quite willing to stick their neck out with the +5 Republican outcome in the final election. They are getting this due to not applying a screen. They must be pretty confident to go this route
2. They must be polling very heavily in certain regions on certain days. Nothing else can explain the huge shifts in Presidential approvals each day. However, some of you will argue that if the approvals shift so much, why does the race stay broadly stable. I would argue that shows the Independents and Democrats. People who are willing to say “Somewhat approve” about the President but when pushed into making a choice, they say “Governor Romney”. I call these guys the “he is not bad.. but we could do better” group
In 8 days we find out if Frank Newport is a Freeper like us and has been drinking our Kool Aid or if we here on FR are geniuses and Frank Newport knows that Nate Silver is a hack.
1. Nate Silver isn’t a pollster, he’s a number scrambler.
2. Gallup’s position is a much less popular position thus requiring a bigger pair of vegetables to defend.
3. Gallup has a long standing reputation and a hell of a lot more experience than Silver.
I’ll go with Gallup (and Ed Goeas) on this one.
Also keep in mind that Gallup polls adults for job approval. Not likely, not even registered voters. Which may explain the volatility of this category. Seems ridiculous to poll “adults” one week out from the election