That’s been my explanation to friends.
Rasmussen has a reputation to uphold in terms of accuracy, but he also has a business presence & narrative.
No one can ever prove you were wrong 2 weeks before the election.
If I’m Rasmussen, I’m thinking ‘stay close enough to the truth that I can veer towards it a few days prior to election, but stay within the pack, giving me the most options.’
‘Hedge’ and ‘conservative’ are the exact two words I’ve probably used 10 times in emails to explain to friends in the past week ...
Thanks!
I think there is one remaining caveat.
Rasmussen has his party id published at the end of every month.
As stated, in September it came in at R+2.6 (after a rough September for Romney).
I’m wondering if it went back up to around the R+4 range (like it was in August), would Rasmussen then adjust his weighting for the last week to reflect a more realistic turnout? Not so much a weight of R+4 but say R+1 like Gallup.
It should be an interesting week.
If D/R party ID is even on election day, and Romney is really winning Indys by RCP average of 15, then this is a blowout of epic proportions.
Seems like every pollster is ignoring the 2010 elections. Maybe they never factor mid-terms into the presidential race. But the ground swell for Repubs in 2010 has not abated. The reasons for the massive swing in 2010 is even more urgent now. The people who were mad in 2010 are even angrier now. USSC upheld Obamacare. Economy still stuck in neutral. More government intervention and regulation.
I have been saying since August, R53/O47 and 330 EVs.