[gswilder]

nhwingnut....

why does RAS weight like that then? If his own party ID split is different? Not challenging you, but you have provided some pretty insightful information. Thanks in advance....

[nhwingut]

why does RAS weight like that then? If his own party ID split is different?

It's the million dollar question. It's frustrating that his own surveys show a R+2.6 and yet he re-weights it to a D+3 - almost a 6 point swing.

In the past (i.e. 2008) he always used his party id survey for his daily polling. I mean isn't that the purpose of the party id survey? That's what Gallup does. They do not weight. They use what they get. And they are getting R+1. That's why it is unlikely that Romney will ever drop in the Gallup poll with that sample, and a week to go.

My opinion is that Rasmussen (who takes heat from the left) is hedging his bets, and being conservative.

If Romney ends up being up 3-4 in the final D+3 Rasmussen poll, add an extra 3 points. That's why I think it'll be 52-47 for Romney.