[1035rep]

“Did Rove project Mitt the likely winner yet?”

Yes he did, just a couple days ago.

[LS]

What people miss about the total #s ar the "Unaffoliated" (Indies). The current D meme is that these ar D voters who went off the registration rolls as Ds when they didn't vote in the last primary. I am checking w OH SecSt today if this definition is true. However, I looked at the decline in U turnout from 08 to the absentees in 2012, and the Us for the most part show similar rates of decline in key counties.

If the Ds from 08 had been dropped off roll in the primaries and shown up as "Us" then I think we should expect to see an increase in Us as Ds swelled their ranks. We have no evidence of that.

Second, by all polls, those Us will vote R at a 10-15% higher rate Han they will D.

Finally, most polls show that SOME Ds will vote for R at a 5-7% higher rate than Rs will vote D.