So then all the polling showing a diminished enthusiasm for Dems across ALL demo groups and a record high enthusiasm (PEW RESEARCH) among Rep is wrong?
The swing indicated by pollsters showing Ind voters who went for obama +8 in 2008 and are now +8 to as high as +19 for Ro,mey are also wrong?
No. I said Republican enthusiasm was likely very high. I also suspect Democratic enthusiasm is greatly diminished from *2008*. I agree that most polls show independents have swung to Romney. Nevertheless, I was answering a specific question posed by Rush: Why is 2012 different than 2010?
And that is, 2010 was a midterm, 2012 is a presidential.
In 2006, 80 million voters turned out. In 2010, 90 million. So a watershed wave election was accomplished with turning out 10 million more voters. But that is because only 37 percent of the voting age population votes in mid-terms. In 2008, in contrast, 57 percent of the eligible population voted, the most since 1968 (50 years).
Conservatives tend to poll better with likely voters than registered voters. So every time you increase turnout *overall*—and not just among conservatives—you weaken conservative chances. In a presidential year, turnout will be probably 50 percent higher (~60 percent versus ~40 percent) than in a midterm. So accomplishing the same kind of dominance as in 2010—while possible—will require much greater effort on our part.