Nate Silver’s ridiculous 75% Obama win projection rests on the assumption that this year’s Democratic voter turnout will be exactly the same or better than 2008.
The fly in the ointment of course is Gallup has already projected an R+1 advantage for this election. If that’s true, there goes Silver’s credibility as a political analyst. It all rides on the conventional wisdom MSM being true.
I don’t think it will be and Gallup and Barone both think the odds favor Romney. So Silver still has time to revisit this crazy scenario he’s postulating and the only people who agree him are on Intrade - which still puts Obama’s chance of being re-elected at 63.6%. We’ll know soon enough who are the real outliers in this election.
What we are seeing is batter Conservative syndrome. A lot of Conservatives are habitual “Eeyore's” they assume that they will lose even when they are winning. Leftists live in a emotional bubble world. They figure because they feel something it is true.
Looking at Rasmussen polls of who people think is going to win Obama is leading by about the same margin as he is on Intrade. So basically people who are doing everything they can to fire Obama are still assuming Obama is going to win.
There is the disconnect between Intrade and the polling. Polls are a measure of what people are going to do, Intrade is a measure of what they think will happen