Posted on 10/26/2012 10:25:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
| 2004 National | 50.7 | 48.3 |
| 2004 Ohio | 50.8 | 48.7 |
Actually, California, New York, Vermont, New Jersey, North Carolina, DC, Maryland, Massachusetts, Washington, Pennsylvania and Illinois have entered into an interstate compact, and have provided by legislation, that their electors MUST vote for the winner of the popular vote.
Now, the interstate compact, not being approved by Congress, is invalid on its face (article I s.10), but the state laws are not only valild, but implicate the sole power of State Legislatures to govern the chusing of Electors (Article II s.1).
THEREFORE, according to the methods determined by the sovereign legislatures of New York, California, and the rest, if Romney/Ryan win the NPV those blue, blue states are REQUIRED, by the perfectly Constitutional powers their legislatures have ALREADY CHOSEN TO EXERCISE, to award 172 Electoral votes to Mssrs. Romney and Ryan.
Bwahahahaahaha! It’s true! Look it up!
That someone wins and popular vote and does not win Ohio is a NON-ISSUE.
Remember though that early voting on the scale we see today is relatively new. That changes things - perhaps dramatically. There is a reason the Democrats support this so heavily and Republicans don't. Early voting gives the Democrats a lot of time to drag the drug addled, dependent, marginal, and very low information voter types out. It is a boon to them. Many/most of these types of people would have otherwise simply stayed home - especially in an election like this where GOP enthusiams is higher. Early voting is the only reason they are ahead or even in Ohio. Most of those polls are factoring in people who have already voted and Obama is winning near 2/3rds of them.
It depends on who is counting the vote
Their reaction would be entirely consistent...
“whatever method makes us win”
For someone to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college, the popular vote margin would have to be razor thin. If the polls are remotely accurate (I still remain skeptical and only see them as momentum indicators) and Romney does indeed have a 3 point or large edge among likely voters, all the undecideds would have to break to Obozo. And that’s assuming these polls have the same Dem-R-Indy mix we’ll see on Election Day, which I kind of doubt.
So...if...IF...the polls are accurate, a pop-win-electoral loss by either candidate requires Obama to have great turnout plus get all the remaining undecideds. I think it’s too late to get that done, but we’ll see.
This article confirms what this election model has predicted all along:
U of Colorado Study: 77% likelihood Romney wins popular vote
The University of Colorado (CU) prediction renowned for perfect accuracy will predict a popular-vote win for Mitt Romney later this month, Campus Reform has learned.
The poll has accurately predicted every presidential election since it was developed in 1980. It is unique in that it employs factors outside of state economic indicators to predict the next president.
Professor Michael Berry from the University of Colorado told Campus Reform in an exclusive interview that there is a 77 percent chance Romney will win the popular vote.
“Our model indicates that Governor Romney has a 77 percent likelihood of winning the popular vote,” said Berry.
That number is significant, not only in its size, but because of the fact that only four presidents since the nation’s founding have won the presidency without capturing the popular vote, the last being George W. Bush in 2000.
Yeah, Dubya won Ohio and lost the pop vote, but Dick Morris has estimated that the early call for Florida cost Dubya a half million votes in the western time zones. So...if no early call, Ohio would still track with the pop vote.
The ironic thing is that if they do take the Newsweek route without a bailout, they’ll probably survive.
He either did or is doing a concert with Katy Perry in Vegas. Same reason.
I pray that you are right.
Now, daggone it... where have I heard that "47 percent" reference before....
God bless Oklahoma! Not one county in that great state drank the kool-aid.
I hope Oblame-a doesn’t get any more than 47% so Romney’s “47%” comment will look prophetic.
I am going to post this in a couple threads I am watching, because I just think it is important: Today I finally donated to the Romney campaign. My feeling was that if it came to this point and he wasn’t winning, my money wasn’t going to help. I figured that if he was tied or winning, it would help get him over the hump or help beat the O soundly. It really felt good to pour it on today. If you have been waiting around to open the wallet, now is a great time to give! Nothing scares the left than finding out that the Romney war chest is overflowing, and they will find out. It is almost as good as voting twice lol..
How cool that would be!!
“In a yellow dog union Democrat town, if you’ve gotta tie that many pork chops around the kid’s neck in order to get the dog to play with him it’s OVER.”
THAT is funny! It never ceases to amaze me that Progressive/Liberals/Marxists insist conservatives don’t have a sense of humor! I just see SO many funny lines here. And talk about humorless: with the exception of James Carville and the professional Marxist “comedians”, libs are the most dour bunch imaginable. Example: how many OWSers were INTENTIONALLY funny?
The GOP candidate’s share of the vote in Ohio correlates very closely with his share of the national vote.
In 2008, McCain earned 46.5% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 47.3%. In 2004, George W. Bush earned 50.7% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 51%. In 2000, George W. Bush earned about 48% of the national popular vote; his Ohio share was 52%.
You can go back even further, but the results are the same - GOP candidates tend to equal or over perform their national popular vote percentage. I feel confident in predicting that if Romney is leading in the national polls on Election Day, he will carry Ohio.
In a shocking turn of events, I’ve found that every poll in which Obama does well uses a D+4 or more sample. Some go as high as D+7!
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