Barring Some Sudden Change, Romney Will Win the Popular Vote

National Review ^ | 10/26/2012 | Jim Geraghty

[SeekAndFind]

Some folks in the know (those who look at the historical records ) also tell me that Ohio's election results tend to closely track the popular vote closely.

That someone wins and popular vote and does not win Ohio is a NON-ISSUE.

[theDentist]

Remembering something devilishly tasty: The Dems demanding that the Electoral Vote be dropped, and the Popular Vote be used.

Let’s listen now to their reaction.....

** crickets **

[Arm_Bears]

How many of these 22 national head-to-head polls oversample DemocRATS?

[stephenjohnbanker]

I noticed that many California (mark as liberal) newspapers are endorsing Romney. I don’t believe this has ever happened before. Interesting twist of events.

[Old Teufel Hunden]

"Under that scenario, we would see a 51 percent to 47.9 percent popular vote win for Romney."

I don't believe it would be statistically possible for Romney to win the popular vote by that margin and lose the electoral vote.

[Buckeye McFrog]

I noticed that many California (mark as liberal) newspapers are endorsing Romney. I don’t believe this has ever happened before. Interesting twist of events.

Newspaper financials are cratering. Many, many of them are going to start turning into Newsweek next year. That's why they were 110% in the tank for Obama. Their futures literally depend upon getting a bailout.

Romney is not a pro-bailout guy, but once it becomes abundantly clear in the internals that he's gonna win, it's time to start sucking up to the new boss if you want to retain any hope that he might help you.

[stephenjohnbanker]

I think you nailed it.

[Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America]

The absence of 0bama bumper stickers in California is downright shocking. My source tells me she saw only ONE while driving the 405 in fairly heavy traffic for over an hour last week. She said it was the absence of them that got her attention!

[jboot]

The chance of winning the popular vote (PV) but losing the electoral vote drops exponentially as the gap in the popular vote widens. Gore outpolled Bush by a mere 0.51% in 2000. Currently Romney enjoys approximately a 2-3 point edge in the PV (probabaly more like 3-5 points if the oversampling of Dems is accounted for). Unless the polls are very, very wrong or something changes drastically Obama cannot count on history to repeat itself in his favor.

[stephenjohnbanker]

That is a good sign things are looking bad for Obama.

[TheOldLady]

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[HamiltonJay]

OBAMA has ZERO chance, and always did, of winning the popular vote, his only chance was to try to cobble together an EC win, which was never possible either.

Obama never had a prayer at getting over 42-43% of the popular vote.... and frankly he could get far less. The idea he could pull out an EC win, but lose the popular vote by the margin he’s going to lose by was a pipe dream.

I don’t care what the polls say, OHIO isn’t going to be close folks.. Romney will win it, and win it by at least 4.

FIGHT LIKE ITS NECK AND NECK! GOTV!!! but don’t think for one minute this thing is close.

[PapaBear3625]

2008, Obama won Ohio, 51.5 to 46.9, versus national 52.9 to 45.7

2004 Bush won Ohio 50.8% 48.7%, vs national 50.7% 48.3%

So Ohio tracks the national results pretty well.

It's simply a correlation, that whoever wins nationally will likely also win Ohio. Obama appears to think there's some mystical significance to Ohio, so he's be putting lots of ads there. The net result may be that he wins Ohio, but loses enough swings states to make Romney the winner, and retire the meme that a Republican needs to win Ohio.

[HamiltonJay]

The Polls IMHO are indeed very wrong, but they are wrong in overstating the vote totals Obama will get, not Romney.. the idea of an EC win with Pop loss is a laughable premise in this election.

Obama has no chance, never did.

[john mirse]

for Obama: 90% blacks, 70% Hispanics: 1. If Romney wins, but the majority of blacks and Hispanics vote for Obama, it means this: Romney won't owe them anything.

2. That is, if they don't vote for Romney, then they can't go to the White House making demands because they believe that Romney owes them.

3. My point is this: Blacks and Hispanics better be careful who they vote for if they vote for this election, because if Romney wins, Romney can do what he pleases because he won't owe blacks and Hispanics anything, because they didn't vote for him.

[Buckeye McFrog]

Obama is holding a Pittsburgh campaign rally today at Soldiers and Sailors Memorial Hall, a venue that seats around 2000.

In order to fill that he’s had to bring in Bruce Springsteen and what’s left of the E-Street Band to appear with him. So basically you can get a free ticket to a Springsteen concert if you’re willing to put up with TOTUS for a bit.

In a yellow dog union Democrat town, if you’ve gotta tie that many pork chops around the kid’s neck in order to get the dog to play with him it’s OVER.

[R_Kangel]

..... Fingers crossed that the Electoral numbers will be well over the minimum to prevent any legal challenges by the OPFOR.

[stephenjohnbanker]

” In a yellow dog union Democrat town, if you’ve gotta tie that many pork chops around the kid’s neck in order to get the dog to play with him it’s OVER.”

Man, this is a classic!

[A'elian' nation]

What am I missing here?

Romney leads among male voters by double digits.
Romney has closed the women gap.

How can you not win the popular vote when you got those kind of stats?

Are there that many transgender and biosexual voters out there?

[opentalk]

Romney was just giving a speech on TV...his new campaign slogan is CHANGE. This word gives me the creeps. He must have a reason for it. But hard to listen to. I associate the word with con man.

He also said if we win....needs to drop the if