That is a plausible explanation, but it does not tally with RAS own poll in August which showed Republican identification up above 37%, nor with the PEW poll.
Well, we’ll see by 6 November whether it will be a relatively tight race or a complete blow out. More and more I am beginning to think we will see another 72. The silent majority will speak its mind.
but it does not tally with RAS own poll in August which showed Republican identification up above 37%, nor with the PEW poll.
Those polls might have more questions designed to allow the pollster to move respondents into a political party.
Almost every poll, even from GOP friendly pollsters, is showing this fairly significant D+ edge. At the same time, almost every poll, even from democratic friendly pollsters, is showing Romney winning (sometimes decisively) among independents. I am fairly certain it is a function of more conservatives identifying themselves as independents now. Remember the GOP brand was shot after 2008 AND movement conservatives are entirely fed up with the RINO Republican establishment.
I wish we would see another 72 or 80 or 84, but I think California and nearly the entire northeast, led by New York, render that highly unlikely.