Anybody have any real numbers yet to support these lofty predictions of a total EV blowout in Romney’s favor? Not trying to be a downer here, but I’m awful skeptical.
Yes. LS, Ravi, and TonyinOhio have been looking at the numbers beyond polling. It may interest you.
You mean other than the #s we’ve posted here for 2 months showing OH Ds ar off their 08 absentee pace by a net 175,000 ballots?
It's simple math. It's possible for Romney to get to 270 without Ohio if he pick up several other smaller swing states. If he takes those plus Ohio, he's already up near 300 EV. Add in Michigan and/or Pennsylvania, and it starts turning into a rout.
Not saying it will happen, but the margins are tight enough in even MI and PA that a late break toward Romney does make it possible. Personally, I'm thinking Obama is rapidly approaching his floor of support and the middle-of-the-fence voters are going to break hard for Romney, better than the typical 3:1. Prediction: Romney 53, Obama 45 (Others 2) and Romney with 320+ EV.