Posted on 10/25/2012 8:50:11 PM PDT by Kenny
47% is probably the most famous number to come out of the 2012 presidential campaign. That’s the percentage of Americans Mitt Romney suggested he was writing off when captured on that famous secretly recorded video during a Florida fundraiser.
But 47% also represents the critical dividing line between how the Romney and Obama campaigns gauge the President’s chances of re-election, viewed through the prisms of their closely guarded internal polling data. In general, the Republicans see a ceiling of around 47% for Obama’s share of the vote in most of the nine battleground states that will decide this contest. The Obama team says it consistently measures their man above that magic line, at around 48-50%.
Both campaigns employ top-flight pollsters who are paid to scientifically take the pulse of the electorate in the battleground states and deliver to the candidate and his strategists an unvarnished view of the state of the race at any given moment. It doesn’t well serve either the incumbent or the challenger to sugarcoat the situation by producing poll results that overstate support (as some pollsters are famous for doing). The key differential between the Chicago and Boston methodologies appears to be assumptions about the final makeup of the electorate in the nine battleground contests.
If the President’s internal data is correct, he is indeed likely to win, pushing off a floor above 47%; using his superior get-out-the-vote operation to dominate early and absentee voting and hold his own on Election Day; and taking a significant share of the small remaining undecided vote. These numbers apply to Chicago’s data from the battleground states, where the President’s support in his campaign’s internal research has consistently outperformed his national poll standing.
(Excerpt) Read more at thepage.time.com ...
They’re not worried about winning. They’re just trying to determine to what level their cheating will have to be in order to not raise any/many red flags. They don’t want to overdo it. Like Joe Kennedy asked JFK, “Well, you didn’t think I was going to buy you a landslide, did you?”
They always cheat. We always catch some of it. But how much flies under the radar?
The demonic-rats will never go along with fixing voter fraud. It’s how they win elections. Just look at their court fights against Voter ID.
Oh man, I would have loved to have seen this.
SoftwareEngineer posted the pic yesterday. Can you repost Sotware?
Halperin’s been taken in by these guys. These sorts of stories were coming out from the McCain campaign about this time in 2008. The reasons were different, but the “We push off a floor of thus and such” crap was in there.
Sometimes the candidate doesn't even know they're done at this point. IIRC, somebody took George Bush aside and gave him the news the Friday before Election Day that it was impossible to win.
Which points of mine do you disagree?
Do you not believe that early voting leads to voter fraud?
Do you not believe that there should be enhanced Voter ID efforts?
Do you believe that we should let felons vote?
Are you opposed to having having polling stations secure?
Do you advocate the current Voting Rights Acts?
If the polls are crap, and not just crap but such crap they don’t even indicate trends and momentum anymore, there might be a way they can still think they’re going to win. But if Romney really is at 50, then the most they should be confident about is that the thing will be really, really tight, not that they will win with some turnout machine. I mean, if polls of likely voters don’t indicate what likely voters will do, why are they citing polls of likely voters for their 47% number?
We all know the Dems cheat, but I’m pretty tired of hearing this “we won’t win because they cheat” crap from FReepers in every election. We heard we wouldn’t win the Congress in 2010 because they would cheat. We heard they’d cheat Scott Walker out of office and he won handily EVEN THOUGH a liberal judge put an injunction up against voter ID and we KNOW Dems bussed people in from other states.
If these guys thought they were going to cheat their way to a win, they wouldn’t be sending Obozo out on the campaign trail with laryngitis and they wouldn’t be sending him to a state (Wisconsin) he won by 18 points to do a rally a week before the election. And we would be seeing the GOPe running from Romney as fast as they could, pretending somehow it was the conservatives’ fault he’s losing. Instead they’re confident and working hard.
They can only steal an election if it’s close...so get to work and make sure it ain’t close. Given what we’re seeing in Ohio, I don’t think it will be.
You pushed the caricature a little too far with the passports bit. One of these days the viking kitties are going to have their way with you.
...viewed through the prisms of their closely guarded internal polling data. In general, the Republicans see a ceiling of around 47% for Obama's share of the vote in most of the nine battleground states that will decide this contest. The Obama team says it consistently measures their man above that magic line, at around 48-50%.Zero will win in NY (although it's more competitive than it sometimes seems) and CA (ditto); Romney wins in Texas; if he loses in Florida, he probably loses the EC vote. But he won't. And some blue states have already flipped to Romney, and we're getting glimpses:
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