Right you are... the latest Euro Model has the hurricane staying closer to the East Coast, then
ramming up the Chesapeake Bay late on Monday evening. Current NHC track is a bit further east, thus hitting Delaware/NJ border. So far, Euro is looking better.
link to that modelAll DelMarVa interests should be in full prep mode right now.... including those that could be susceptible to inland flooding forced by storm surge near the top of the Bay.
Here's a graphic I made up that illustrates my concerns... (and I apologize for the size of this). The models are projecting the storm to arrive with a fairly steep "entry angle" - maybe driving due NW into the coast. That would forces many of the tributaries backward... causing major flooding.
This graphic is based on the latest European model run since it has been "most right' so far. If that turns out to be correct, then all waterways between Washington and Richmond will be impacted, though the area near King George, VA and SE from there could be the hardest hit.
But use this graphic as a guide -- as I say, the exact track is still unknown, plus it's going to be a large storm: Delaware Bay could very well get this instead with only a modest change in either the approach angle OR the timing of the NW turn... a difference in a couple of hours would change the landfall by 150 miles.
