Virginia Early Voting Tallies Show Trouble for Obama (Cook Political Report data)

Dave Wasserman of Cook Political Report | 10/24/12 | TonyInOhio

[TonyInOhio]

This is techinically a vanity post, but newsworthy, all the same. Dave Wasserman is one of the head number crunchers at Cook Political Report, and he has been tweeting results from Virigina's early voting period. The numbers look good for Romney and very, very bad for Obama. Here are a several of his tweets with the raw data:

VIRGINIA EARLY VOTE: Up 18.8% in the 86 localities McCain won in '08, but up ONLY 4.4% in the 48 Obama won: http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/sbe_csv/STATS/

Overall, early vote up 9.4% across the board in VA vs this point in '08, but this 14% disparity very troubling #s for @BarackObama

3 of 4 top DECREASES in VA early voting vs '08: 1) Richmond City (-16.8%) 3) Arlington County (-14.0%) 4) Charlottesville City (-10.5%)

In VA's McCain localities, early vote = 95,744 (vs 80,881 at this pt in '08). VA's Obama localities = 152,084 (vs 145,673 in '08)

Huge drop-offs in Richmond, Arlington & C'ville indicative of understandable (yet troubling for Ds) decline in Af-Am, yuppie & college vote

[justiceseeker93]

Encouraging, but I fully expect Romney to win VA by a few percentage points anyway, consistent with the latest Ras poll of the state.

Ohio remains the big nut to crack, and, from my electoral vote analysis, could possibly play the same role Florida played in 2000: the Ohio vote could decide the presidency after all other states are settled. Luckily, the Ohio Secretary of State is a Republican, which should make for a fairer vote count and/or recount if necessary. All election lawyers should be making reservations for Columbus just in case.

[kabar]

The Obama people must have some very bad information if they are offering rides to the polls in a heavily Rep district. Have you voted early in person?

The Rep GOTV is very active and sophisticated in VA. I am part of the effort. You need to get in touch with the Republican chairman of your county committee and express your concerns.

[RKBA Democrat]

All the gotv in the world won’t help you if folks don’t want to vote for your candidate.

From my view in tidewater, there is nowhere near the enthusiasm for hussein as there was 4 years ago.

Upshot: VA goes red. Very red. And people will be wondering why they thought VA was a swing state in the first place.

[wolfman23601]

Being there is no early voting here in VA, I’d take this with a grain of salt...

[lovesdogs]

Good to hear this. I was just sick when my home state went blue in 2008.

[wolfman23601]

It isn’t going to happen in VA because THERE IS NO EARLY VOTING HERE

[kabar]

Virginia does not have early voting. In ‘98 they allowed in-person absentee voting, but only with a qualified excuse, such as disabled, out of state, emergency worker with a long shift, etc. This year it is only through the mail.

Newbie, this is absolutely totally false. VA does have early in person absentee ballot voting.

How do I know? I am a poll observer at a poll and have already voted. In-person absentee voting is up in VA. Reps are much more motivated and they are showing up in greater numbers than ever before. The GOP has a major effort to get out the in-person absentee ballots that heretofore has been dominated by the Dems.

We are telling our folks not to use the mail in ballots that can be too easily invalidated on a techincality.

STOP SPREADING THIS FALSEHOOD. IT IS AN OUTRIGHT LIE, NEWBIE.

[OldPossum]

If you are a Democrat and there are troubling data coming from Charlottesville, well, you have big troubles.

I love what’s going on in Virginia.

[wolfman23601]

You are full of crap. No early voting in VA other than mail in absentee and you need a valid excuse. You stop spreading lies.

[kabar]

THERE IS NO EARLY VOTING HERE

YOU ARE FULL OF BS. THERE IS IN-PERSON ABSENTEE BALLOTING GOING ON IN VA SINCE LAST WEDNESDAY. AT THE SATELLITE STATION I WORK AT IN FAIRFAX COUNTY, WE HAVE HAD OVER 3000 VOTING INCLUDING MY FAMILY AND ME. THE REPS ARE MAKING A CONCERTED EFFORT TO GET OUR FOLKS TO THE POLLS AND IT IS WORKING.

STOP SPREADING THE LIES. WE HAVE IN PERSON ABSENTEE VOTING IN VA. YES, YOU MUST PROVIDE A REASON AS TO WHY YOU CAN'T MAKE IT TO THE POLLS ON ELECTION DAY, BUT THE REALITY IS THAT YOU USE A HOST OF REASONS AND NO ELECTION OFFICER WILL CHALLENGE YOU. THE DEMS HAVE BEEN DOING IT FOR YEARS AND NOW FINALLY THE GOP HAS WOKE UP.

[Ravi]

Check the spreadsheet and all will be well

[palmer]

I would exercise some caution over Virginia. On the plus side, I see some signs in liberal households of split votes (e.g. houses with Kaine signs but no Obama sign). But the ability of Obama’s troops to turn out should not be underestimated. Planned Parenthood is playing ads nearly nonstop, e.g. on WMZQ, a country music station, bashing the crap out of Romney (our tax money at work). The news radio station (largest audience in the region) does daily interviews with Politico to bash Republicans. Tonight they did a special segment on the Indiana candidate who commented on rape. This is in their prime segment (5:22PM) and will be replayed several times overnight and tomorrow AM. My mailbox contains an endless supply of Obama funded glossies. It is both depressing listening to that crap but encouraging that they are doing so poorly despite their barrage.

[kabar]

Where do you live in VA? I know in-person absentee voting exists because I voted already. I am a poll observer who has witnessed the voting since last Wednesday. If you tell me where you live, I will give you the location of the in person absentee ballot polling sites.

You are the one full of crap.

[SoftballMominVA]

I’m in an exurb of Wash DC out in VA. I will be voting early (as I have done before). It’s just a matter of showing up, showing ID, voting. No big deal

[kabar]

VA Absentee voting--go to the bottom of the page

Casting In-Person Absentee Ballot:

• Call your General Registrar's office for location or locations of In Person Absentee voting sites.

• An absentee application must be completed before casting a ballot.

• Acceptable voter identification must be provided.

• If all of the above is completed, you will then be allowed to cast an absentee ballot.

[perez24]

I’m glad to hear this but I don’t understand why heavy early voting from one party or another is necessarily good or bad sign. If someone could explain I would appreciate it.

[LS]

Not happening in OH. Epic fail so far. Look at Montgomery Co. #s I posted earlier: 2008, 10,400 early votes 2012, 2,200. Now, even if you give ALL those to the Ds, they’re down 80%.

[Hero]

I voted yesterday along with my wife. We are in Loudoun county and there was a steady stream of voters. I’d say that most were Romney voters.

[wolfman23601]

I live in Newport News, but I have no interest in voting early even if I could. I have no excuse, won’t lie, and frankly feel my vote has a better chance of counting by voting with my paper ballot going through the machine at my precinct anyway. Anyone who votes early without a true excuse is committing fraud IMO. I don’t care what the dems do or what the state law says. The constitution is quite clear on “election day”.

[kabar]

Early voting has long been a Dem strategy to get their base out. They don't wait for one day, election day, to ensure that their people vote. Too many things can happen like personal emergencies, unplanned travel, illness, the weather, etc. It also gives them more time to commit election fraud.

The GOP, the Stupid Party, finally woke up to discover that they should do the same thing. In 2008 the Dems clobbered the Reps in early voting--40% of the votes are cast before election day. Now it appears so far that the Dems ground game is not as good as 2008, i.e., they are not getting out as many of their base to vote early. The GOP is doing much better than 2008, which shows they are learning their lesson and they appear to be much more motivated.

So heavy early voting is a good indicator of how the race may be going and it could be a good or bad sign depending upon the relative numbers. So far, the GOP is exceeding its 2008 numbers while the Dems are under performing. In 2008, John McCain received more votes than Obama on election day. But Obama won by 10 million votes, much of them cast prior to election day.