I find it almost impossible to believe that Romney has ANY chance of losing if he is really up by ~9 points among indies, regardless of what the top line number says.
Don’t we hear, every election cycle, that “RINO X is the only one who can win over the moderates and independents”? and then we hear “40% vote our way, 40% vote their way. Elections are won by the remaining 20%”
If we’re really up 9 on those remaining 20% independents and we lose that is the end of that logic. It can’t be both ways. Either:
1)independents are required to win the elections, we win them and we win.
or
2) independents are required to win the election and we lose and that “logic” is proven wrong.
It can’t be that we win Independents by 9% and lose. Not possible.
Maybe we need to win independents by 11%.
40 % dem
40% GOP
20 % Ind
=100%
40% GOP + 9% is only 49%, 40% GOP + 11% Ind = 51% and the WIN!
The real question there is will FReepers and the Tea Party accept that idea even if it’s “proven correct” via victory in the first scenario described?
Trying to step outside of my own conservative leaning and just predict the future, I don’t think Romney winning will convince the conservative wing that we need independents.
I’m going to say it was because he finally got tough with Obama and added Paul Ryan so that even the media is starting to say “Mitt has a plan (WHICH WE HATE), but Obama doesn’t have a 2nd term plan”.
And if Mitt loses, well, that’s obvious.