[ReaganÜberAlles]

I think each day this becomes more and more the likley outcome.

Obama cannot get over 50% in any poll. His approval rating is below 50%.

The last remaining undecideds over the last 3-4 days will break 80% for Romney. If they really wanted Obama they’d already be in his camp.

[tanknetter]

Obama cannot get over 50% in any poll. His approval rating is below 50%.

Yes, that's what Morris is looking at, how the undecideds will break. And the consensus has always been that the undecideds overwhelmingly break for the challenger and for the exact reason you cite.

However, this is a pretty weird year for polling (part of a trend that's been growing for a good number of cycles now). First, I believe companies like Gallup when they say they don't weight their results by party ID (so Party ID is just a question they ask at the end). I also believe polling companies when they say that over 90% of polling calls are failures due to non-answers or rejections.

Those things add up to the conclusion that participation in polls is now self-selecting, that the "science" is gone from them and they really aren't that much better than the online polls we're constantly FReeping.

Given that, I think that the polls this year are way, way, way off. But I have no idea how much and in what direction and I'm not confident at all in assuming that a D+9 poll just needs to be refactored for a D+2 or D+3 turnout model. My gut tells me to look at the enthusiasm numbers, and maybe the right-track/wrong-track ones ... but that's just a guess. My thought is that both campaigns are doing things not based on polls but on SWAGs/Expert Judgement (TX, UT and AK going for Romney, no further research needed for instance) and feedback they're getting from door-knockers (in swing states like OH, PA, WI and MI). Which right now may just be the best (if not "good") way of trying to figure things out.