, it occurred to me that almost all of the other polls in Ohio are based on the 2008 party identification turnout which was Dems +8 (an historic high). HERE’S the rub – Ohio does not have registration of party members. SO, HOW did the pollsters gather this information? Here’s how - in primary elections you must ASK for either a Democrat ballot or a Republican ballot. The 2008 party identification statistics are based on these numbers established in the primary.
NOW do you recall what was happening in the primary season in March of 2008? McCain had locked up the GOP nomination and Rush Limbaugh was heavily promoting “Operation Chaos” encouraging conservatives to cross over and vote for Hillary. I did. So, I am one of the people counted in the Dem +8 poll weighing going on this year.
How many of you actually think I will vote dem on November 6?
What percentage of that +8 number actually represents conservative crossovers participating in Rush’s “Operation Chaos”? I’d sure like to know, but I’m willing to bet it’s at least 100,000 people.
Here in Ohio Romney is NOT tied, he’s AHEAD. Throw in the undecided breaking at least 2 to 1 for Romney and he’s safely ahead (for now).
Oh, and this year, there are 480,000 FEWER dems than in 2008. So my 100,000 estimation may be UNDER the actual Operation Chaos participants.