Some conservative aren’t counted as “Likely Voters” because they sat out the 2008 elections.
When you combine that with the poll bias due to High Dem enthusiasm last time, that isn’t present this time, the polls are 2-3 points short on measuring Romney support.
“Some conservative aren’t counted as “Likely Voters” because they sat out the 2008 elections.
When you combine that with the poll bias due to High Dem enthusiasm last time, that isn’t present this time, the polls are 2-3 points short on measuring Romney support.”
This is an interesting observation. I don’t think Gallup and Rasmussen aren’t short because of what you’re pointing out here, (since it’s hard to be believe, for example, that Romney is really ahead by 8 instead of 6), but it could explain, at least in part, why the IBD poll has been so different than the Gallup poll. They were 10 points apart!