[dangus]

Weighing by party affiliation is an excellent way of confirming the validity of your sampling technique. The problem is that party registration is verifiable, party affiliation is not.

[Skulllspitter]

Weighing by party affiliation is an excellent way of confirming the validity of your sampling technique. The problem is that party registration is verifiable, party affiliation is not.

Well put.

Gallup's methodology is fine at the national level.

Rasmussen's partisan weighting methodology is fine, too, though slower to catch trends.

On the state level, strong campaign organizations can turn unlikely voters into likely voters (and use ads to demotivate voters favorable to their opponent) and outperform their poll results, but there's a limit to what that can accomplish.

[SeekAndFind]

FROM GALLUP's OWN WEBSITE :

Election Year Presidential Preferences: Gallup Poll Accuracy Record
1936 - 2008

Year	Nominees	Final Poll	Election Results	Deviation
2008	Barack Obama	55	52.6	-2
	John McCain	44	46.0	+2
2004	George W. Bush	49	50.7	-2
	John F. Kerry	49	48.3	+1
2000	George W. Bush	48	47.9	0
	Albert Gore, Jr.	46	48.4	-2
	Ralph Nader	4	2.7	+1
1996	William J. Clinton	52	49.2	+3
	Robert Dole	41	40.7	0
	H. Ross Perot	7	8.4	-1
1992	William J. Clinton	49	43.0	+6
	George Bush	37	37.4	0
	H. Ross Perot	14	18.9	-5
1988	George Bush	56	53.4	+3
	Michael Dukakis	44	45.6	-2
1984	Ronald Reagan	59	58.8	0
	Walter F. Mondale	41	40.6	0
1980	Ronald Reagan	47	50.7	-4
	Jimmy Carter	44	41.0	+3
	John Anderson	8	6.6	+1
1976	Jimmy Carter	48	50.1	-2
	Gerald Ford	49	48.0	+1
1972	Richard Nixon	62	60.7	+1
	George McGovern	38	37.5	0
1968	Richard Nixon	43	43.4	0
	Hubert H. Humphrey	42	42.7	-1
	George Wallace	15	13.5	+1
1964	Lyndon B. Johnson	64	61.1	+3
	Barry Goldwater	36	38.5	-3
1960	John F. Kennedy	51	49.7	+1
	Richard Nixon	49	49.5	-1
1956	Dwight Eisenhower	59.5	57.4	+2
	Adlai Stevenson	40.5	42.0	-2
1952	Dwight Eisenhower	51	55.1	-4
	Adlai Stevenson	49	44.4	+5
1948	Harry S. Truman	44.5	49.5	-5
	Thomas E. Dewey	49.5	45.1	-4
	Strom Thurmond	4	2.4	+2
1944	Franklin D. Roosevelt	51.5	53.4	-2
	Thomas E. Dewey	48.5	45.9	+3
1940	Franklin D. Roosevelt	52	54.7	-3
	Wendell L. Willkie	48	44.8	+3
1936	Franklin D. Roosevelt	55.7	60.8	-5
	Alfred M. Landon	44.3	36.5	+8

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[for-q-clinton]

But what about states like VA where you don’t have to declare a party nor do you.