Not sure what the nervousness is over this poll.
It’s a joke.
It way oversamples Dems (+9) and in addition to the D+9 it uses a ridiculous party breakdown of only 26% Republicans. Even in the worst election for Repubs, it was 31%.
Ohio is a tie, at worst.
It is even worse than that. If you examine their internals, they actually weight Republicans DOWN by a percent or two and Dems up. The actual number of raw calls were to 27.2% GOP and 34% Dem. They weight the Dems up 1% and the GOP down almost 2%. Now, they did not do it that way, I am sure they tried to weight by gender or some other demographic and that caused the weight on their raw numbers by party affiliation to actually get more skewed. When I corrected for party affiliation, Romney is up by 1.5%. I used a D+2 weighted sample.