Posted on 10/22/2012 7:18:57 AM PDT by chessplayer
So CBS expects us to believe that while the whole world worshiped this guy in 2008 they still expect a better turn-out for him in 2012? D +9 is laughable.
Obama went down and Romney went up, even in this poll. Follow the trend.
Their top issues are taxpayer subsidized contraception, abortion AND BIG BIRD? Somehow that just doesn’t jive.
Yes,we certainly must keep working but if this poll starts at Rat +9 then it's credibility is minus 9...particularly given that 13 of Ohio's 18 House seats are currently occupied by Republicans.
Party ID is D +9 (Dem 35, Rep 26, Ind 34). This compares to D +8 in 2008 (Dem 39, Rep 31, Ind 30) and R +5 in 2004 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind 25).
Look at this poll. It undersamples Rs from 2008. Remember 0bama won the Indies by 8 in 2008 in Oiho.
This is D +9 sample. It is a joke poll.
He doesn’t need Ohio. It can be replaced with any one option below (if he has CO, VA, FL and NC in the bag):
1. PA
2. MI
3. NV, IA, NH
4. NV, IA and 1 EV from Maine
5. WI and any one of the above full states
When the hell are we going to get some numbers from Ras on Ohio... ??
Thats what I’m wondering. He seems to be avoiding Ohio like the plague.
I don’t think there has been an election in the last 100 years where the Republican percent of the vote was 26%. It is laughable.
I am now thoroughly confused..
In today’s polls, we have Wisconsin, Colorado that is 19 votes, We need 16 more from a group consisting of Iowa; Virginia; New Hampshire and Nevada if he holds what he has plus leaners. In that senario, we need Virginia, and either New Hampshire or Iowa. Doable for sure.
Ohio, who knows what is going on there with the polls, the election or in the water. Romney shifted a lot of support from NC to Penn (!) recently either because he feels Ohio is in the bag or it is so far lost he needs a hail mary pass in Pa, a state which has not gone GOP in a few elections.
Actually Romney doesn’t NEED Ohio... this has been another lie the media has perpetuated from the get go.
Yes, Ohio is the easies path for Romney, but he doesn’t NEED it.. Obama cannot win without OHIO, Romney has several options without Ohio.
However, Quinnepac is full of bullplop showing Obama up 5 in Ohio... that’s out and out nonsense.
Look, I’ve explained this countless times, so I’m getting tired of it.
PA and Ohio are alike in many aspects politically.. Most of the rust belt states are... however states like PA, MI and IL have things that states like OH, IN, IA and WI do not have. What? Simple... the prior states PA, MI and IL all have a huge metropolitian city that represents 10-20+% of the overall state population dragging their states toward the democratic side.. in PA for example PHILLY easily tilts the state 5-8 points democratic. The latter states, OH, IN, WI,IA do not have a megacity like this.. yes they have a few moderate sized cities, but NOTHING like a Philly, or a Detroit or a Chicago... so in those states 1 city cannot overwhelm the rest of the state.
Right now Obama is only up a few points in PA.. So if Obama is only up a few points in PA with PHILLY skewing the vote here heavily democratic, there is no way in hell he’s winning OH, let alone winning it by 5. Ohio will go Romney, and not only go Romney but will likely be Romney by 4-5 points.
Fight like its neck and neck, but stop buying into the BS.
And remember, ROMNEY does NOT need OHIO to win there are many paths to victory for Romney.. Yes OHIO is the easiest, but not remotely the ONLY... for Obama... there is no map for him staying in office without holding OHIO... Ohio is a Must Win for Obama, but its not for Romney.
Go play with the elctoral maps, you’ll see. Romney is going to get FL, NC, VA, IN, CO, NH without any question. I firmly believe he’ll also take IA, OH, WI and yes, even PA personally. With MI as well.. Under the assumptions of that...
Now, Lets play worst case here, Lets say Romney carries, FL, NC, VA, IN, IA, NH and CO... reasonaly safe assumption at this point. That means all Romney needs is ANY state in the Uion to win.. He can take WI, MI, PA or OHIO for the win.. OBama is in a must win situation he cannot afford to lose anything else.
Reality is Obama isn’t going to get over low 40s in the popular vote, I believe personally 42-43% max. He’s not going to win OHIO or WI, or IA.. and frankly I think PA or MI or both will go Romney in the end as well.
Early voting here in the Buckeye state voting hours are daytime weekday hours. Republicans are all at work or retired. The only two people I know who voted early both went for Romney.
I don’t get why anyone would post this poll without looking at the internals first then make sure people know right up front what the Dem vs Rep sample is in the poll? Why post a poll like this then have your first post sound all dire and depressing? I really don’t get it. Some people here live to be miserable or to get bad news.
Clearly this is a horribly flawed poll when you look at the internals.
IA, VA and NH are all givens as far as I’m concerned at this point. The ONLY rust belt states Obama has a chance at are MN, MI and PA.
He has no chance in IA, IN or OH.
Frankly I think PA is winnable, and so is MI, one if not both will probably go Romney on election day as well.
Also nv, ia, congress
Not too inexplicable. Obama's been carpet-bombing it with ads for weeks, far outspending Romney. Obama seemed to understand when early voting started in Ohio and Romney didn't. Romney will have to make it up with other states now.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/ad-spending-in-presidential-battleground-states-20120620
I thought that was a weird thing to say. If you have a sample of 50 dems, 25 rep and 25 the results will change if you swap the dem and rep numbers
Take it easy folks... they do this to get knee jerk reactions from us to use against us in the hopes of cementing their meager female advantage. If women understand one thing, it is that the economy comes before all else right now... when most folks step into the voting booth, women especially and fence sitters in general, the war in their minds comes to one conclusion... its either their pride of party affiliation and feel-goodism or the economy. My bet is that more break toward the economy than not... they’re just trying to rattle our cage... stay cool...
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