I question how strong this surprise could be this late in the game. Voting already going on in many swing states. The Mitt-mentum is so strong they would have already played their trump card.
If they thought their October surprise would shift the momentum they would have let it fly before turning to binders.....
As I said earlier, maybe the 47% video was the OS but had to be used to get Libya out of the news; or the video was released by Team RR.
Although I cannot recall the precise numbers, I saw a post election analysis for 2004 that showed a considerable portion of Bush’s margin over Kerry in FL was shaved off by that Friday-before-the-election DUI story surfacing. The analysis I read stated that it was evangelical voters who either stayed home or abstained in the Presidential selection that year, and the speculation was that this was precisely the effect the Kerry camp was anticipating when they (or their cut outs) leaked the story to FNC.It just didn’t have the magnitude they expected.
I too have wondered about some image shattering claim that would be launched against Romney. But you have to think that Obama wouldn’t have sat on it this long. If he had been up 10 pts. to date, sure, but it has been essentially a draw, and he knows he is in a box on foreign policy. If he has something, the time to release it is before the debate.