I have always thought from the very beginning that Romney will take Wisconsin. He is close enough in the polls, they are over counting Democrats, and the recent history seems to have taught pollsters nothing.
Pennsylvania remains as tantalizing as ever but I think the arguments advanced by Susquehanna make sense. We know that Romney has an excellent ground game in Ohio but does he have a ground again in Pennsylvania? If so, he could win here to.
I am happy to take your word for Nevada.
I do not think that I am unreasonably optimistic in view of today's news from Rasmussen that Romney leads in the swing states 50-46. Even if the bulk of Romney support has been allocated to states which I have already awarded to Romney such as North Carolina, Florida and Virginia, the odds are still with Romney in Wisconsin, Ohio, and perhaps even Pennsylvania. Some of Obama support must be leached off into Michigan.
If Romney can turn in a debate performance as he did in the previous debates, his momentum should push him well over the line. I do not think that I will get the repudiation of Obama that I yearn for and which I consider necessary to put a stake in the heart of Marxism but I think we will get the win.
