I never thought OH was a lock for the demholes. I posted a (humble, personal) theory back in August. Basically I opined that if you look at the '09 gov races in VA and NJ, then the rise of the Tea party, the mid term elections....especially the races where entrenched demhole incumbents that normally won by 30 points, were "only" winning reelction by 10, that's a big swing. then factor in all the crap in WI....then factor in the Occupy cretins and all on O's failures that there's no reason to expect anything has subsided any swung back to the dems. My point then was that the starting point in any given competitive state would be Obama 5 points less than his 2008 tally. now since then, we have the first debate beating, Libya and the train wreck that is Obamas campaign since then.
Obamas last, best hope is vote fraud.
“I never thought OH was a lock for the demholes.”
This is a good point — I keep hearing and reading all this stuff about how everybody assumed the race was a “lock” for Obama only until the first debate a few weeks ago. This is complete and utter BS.
I don’t think many people around here have ever believed Obama was a lock to win — we all realized that a poll that oversamples Dems +13 is simply not reflective of reality.
I would concede that Romney’s momentum was super-charged after the 1st debate and he is likely running away with it now (though no one in the LSM would be willing to admit it). But before the 1st debate, I think Romney still had a slight edge if the polls would have had realistic samples.