There was a 2 point edge, what...3 days ago?
A good day for Romney had to have dropped as well as a bad day.
But, he’s back on top by one. Rasmussen is insisting on it being a close race where Gallup and others are saying differently.
I think he’s off a bit, and that is gut instinct due to the states moving in Romney’s direction. The only way for Obama to have countered those numbers would have been increased percentages of support by his base in his deep blue states like California, New York, etc.
I recall from the last election when he heard the criticism that he was not adjusting his rolling affiliation average often enough to keep up with a changed electorate, so he begin using a 3 week rolling, and, iirc, he’d changed from a 4 week rolling.
That and other things he’s written suggest to me he adjusts his base model of (D3 or D5, depending who you ask) by the a formula with all his adjustment categories to include affiliation. His major problem might be his USE of his belief that party ID is very steady through time with little change.
If a democrat in name only (dino) is voting for Romney or is undecided, then should the base model still say D+3 if the dinos are in great supply that election cycle?
Swing State Tracker: Romney 50 Obama 46