Dem +8 (Dem 42, Rep 34, Ind 20). This compares to 2008 of D +8 (Dem 39, Rep: 31, Ind 30) and 2004 of R +5 (Dem 35, Rep 40, Ind: 25).
While your hoistorical numbers are interesting there are two things not included there
a) in 2011 Ohio elected Kasic governor
b) the enthusiasm levelfor O is down and the groundteam for Romney is very active.
MOREOVER, Ohio is polling likely voters at +2 Romney since the first debate (Gallup) and more than that if you look at unskewed polls data.