The race for the Senate

RealClearPolitics ^ | 10/16/2012

[Teacher317]

RealClearPolitics

I just posted on an Obama-losing-VA thread that I hadn't seen much on the Senate races. With Obama starting to cede more states, and increasing spending in places like CA and NYC, it's clear that the Dems are in real trouble. Looking at the Senate, the link shows an excellent breakdown of the expected Senate composition, and the toss-up seats.

[Teacher317]

The very good news... it was projected to be 48-43, with 9 toss-up seats just 3 weeks ago (9/26). Since then, the Dems have dropped to 45 likely seats, and 12 toss-up seats.

Even more, of the 12 toss-up seats, 9 were Dem seats (they have more to lose), or in states that Obama is no longer pushing hard to win:
AZ: Open (R)
CT: Open (D)
IN: Open (R)
MA: Brown (R)
MO: McCaskill (D)
MT: Tester (D)
NV: Heller (R)
ND: Open (D)
OH: Brown (D)
PA: Casey (D)
VA: Open (D)
WI: Open (D)

[Teacher317]

45-43, with 12 toss-ups, with the Dems running for cover... and 9 of 12 seats that were Dem, while anti-incumbent sentiment is high)... Here’s to optimism!!

[Shery]

Isn’t Hillary’s senate seat, appointed to Gillibrand, up for re-election this year?

[HogsBreath]

Thanks for posting. I was curious also.
It’s time to break out the checkbook for the Republican candidates, and to hope Romney has long coattails.

[SarahPalin2012]

My guesses:

AZ: Flake (R)
CT: McMahon (R)
IN: Mourdock (R)
MA: Brown (R)
MO: Akin (R)
MT: Rehberg (R)
NV: Heller (R)
ND: Berg (R)
OH: Mandel (R)
PA: Casey (D)
VA: Allen (R)
WI: Thompson (R)

Total Republican Senate Seats after Nov. 2012 Election:

54

[Strategerist]

I’m actually far less optimistic about the Senate than the Presidential Race.

I think the Republicans will be lucky to get to 50-50.

[NoobRep]

You all are forgetting Nebraska. Deb Fischer is creaming Carpetbagger Bob Kerrey. This seat is that hack Ben Nelson’s.

[Flavious_Maximus]

and also in Florida, the Republican Connie Mack can still defeat the homosexual Democrat Nelson.

[redfreedom]

“ND: Berg (R)”

I believe this is correct. The leftists in ND’s Red River Valley will be outvoted by the oil folks of and for the Bakken.

[Teacher317]

NE is already listed as safely GOP on that webpage. =^)

[Teacher317]

On 10/6, that seat went from 'Leans Dem" to "toss-up", then one day later was re-listed as "Leans Dem". It's obviously teetering! =^)

(Mack (R) also had clear leads in the polling back in JUL... but not since.)

[Teacher317]

A bit optimistic, but I like it!

(And what happens when we give the GOP all 3 Houses of government once again, and they squander it once again?)

[cgbg]

CT and MA are very iffy—just too many liberals voting in those states.

[Teacher317]

House races

They have the House at 226-183, with 26 toss-ups. Looks like the House is pretty safely GOP.

[Teacher317]

President

And they have Romney up one, with less than 3 weeks and one debate to go.

=^)

[Teacher317]

Electoral map

206-201, with 131 up for grabs

[wordsofearnest]

Lugar is doing all he can to sabotage Mourdock short of endorsing Donnelly.

[RightWingNilla]

Isn’t Hillary’s senate seat, appointed to Gillibrand, up for re-election this year?

Yes, but in the People's Republic of New York she is a lock for re-election.

[Alistair Stratford IV]

CT and MA are very iffy—just too many liberals voting in those states.

Brown wins his Senate seat by 3% minimum over Warren...bank on it.

[RightWingNilla]

Brown wins his Senate seat by 3% minimum over Warren...bank on it.

I pray you are right. The thought that even deep blue Massachusetts would elect such a reprehensible lying marxist is sickening. I would think that falsely claiming status of one of the treasured minority groups would turn off most liberals. I guess they have no shame.