[StandAndDeliver1]

No one who is up 7 with 19 days to go can lose.

I believe Carter was up by about 10 a week before election.

[CatOwner]

"I believe Carter was up by about 10 a week before election."

I believe the actual was about 6 to 8 in late October 1980. The issue at the time was there was a corresponding NBC-AP poll that had Reagan up by a similar amount. Carter's main undoing was his abysmal job approval ratings. Obama is in better shape than Carter, but he's still south of 50% approval.