“Remember when Bush beat Kerry by 3%, he ended up winning the EC comfortably.”
Not quite.
President Bush won 286 electoral votes. He needed 270. If he'd have lost Ohio (which was fairly close), he'd have lost the election.
sitetest
If Gore had won his “home state” of Tennessee, Florida would not have mattered.
Given the horrendous and disastrous performance of the Democrats over the last 4 years (Actually, the last 6 going back to what they did after winning 2006) i believe the number of voters in 2012 will drop off the planet ~ at least compared to 2008.
We will see the biggest drop among Democrats ~ no way Obamugabe can get that same 69 million he got last time, and he could drop as low as the 2010 tally ~ about 39 million voters! At the same time Republican voters may well not show up in the numbers seen for "W"'s second term, but if there are as many as in the McCain debacle they could well outnumber the Democrats in enough states with enough electoral votes to put Romney in the White House, but it'll look a lot more like 2000 than anyone wants unless Democrats are as dispirited this year as in 2010.
I kind of think the lack of campaign signs in lawns may actually mean something ~ not that the signs weren't printed, but nobody wants to put an Obama sign in the lawn!
http://www.usconstitution.net/elections.html provides the popular vote by candidate for every election. The 1932 election may possibly be repeated ~ there the 1928 Republican landslide was followed by the 1932 Roosevelt landslide. There wasn't any huge additional turnout in 1932 either. Republicans lost about 6 million voters and Democrats gained about 7 million voters ~ comparing those two elections.