Nice analysis. That was the impression I had also, that there is a substantial bloc of voters that’s only “awaiting permission” to support Romney.
As an aside, Ross Perot endorsed Romney today. I think that gives these voters a bit of that permission, don’t you?
Absolutely. He is sort of the independent’s independent. I knew plenty of people who wouldn’t be caught dead voting Republican, but supported Perot openly and proudly. He has been the only candidate that I can remember that people could support, without worrying at all about what others might think. By endorsing Romney, he makes it that much easier for Democrats and independents who are concerned about the country, but highly suspicious of Republicans in general, to cross that line.
Romney has really done a very good job (and I was pretty firmly in the anyone but Mitt camp). I have a sneaking suspicion that in the next debate, he is going to be spending a lot more time talking directly to the American people, and (not dis-respectively) only engaging Obama when necessary. Essentially, saying with his actions and his demeanor: “this is my stage now, I am going to tell the American people what they can expect over the next 4 years (and, oh, President Obama, I didn’t realize you were still here ...)”. I have seen enough to be confident that he could pull this off effectively.
Looking at the focus groups, interviews, and so on, I am getting the distinct impression that people have started to tune Obama out. It isn’t over, but over is visible from here.