The “polls” are all over the place. That tells me that they haven’t got a clue what the hell is going to happen on November 6th.
Scott messed up a bit here with his timing. He was supposed to put out the slight shift to 0’ after the debate, NOT on the day of the debate. This messes up the planned upcoming narrative by the enemedia of 0’s comeback.
You’re exactly right. I think the people predicting a big Romney win are out to lunch. It’s going to be tough if it happens at all. Ras has yet to show OH trending R&R and w/o OH, R&R is done.
As for the debate tonight, all 0bama has to do is appear more caring and understanding than someone who can come off as a rich robot. I’ve got a sinking feeling that we may have seen the highwater mark of R&R. I hope I am wrong.
There's still a good-sized number of people in this country who are still emotionally bonded to Obama and can't quit him. Some appear to have been peeled away after the first debate, but winning over large slices of them is a tall order. Just like beaten spouses, they somehow are convinced he abuses them because he just cares so much.
I know everyone always talks about Michigan and PA being possibilities, but I really don’t think they are. There has been talk of a “surge” in PA ever since Bush 2000...him losing it is what started the “calling it for Gore” scenario. I remember there was that big hope that McCain was going to pull a shocker in PA.
Well if Obama carries MI and PA by a decent margin, that might account for this...the equivalent of polling 2 states as a “battleground” when they aren’t...or at least Romney doesn’t need them to win. You have to wonder about Iowa too.
Of course, I don’t think N. Carolina is a battleground either, Romney will win that handily.
But Romney can take back Florida, Indiana, NC, VA and win Ohio and Colorado even being behind in that poll because of PA, MI and Iowa being included.
Seems to me this is trending the opposite of most every national and state poll right now. We are seeing blue leaning swing states tighten, and all the red leaning states with a decent margin for RR or a tie. I think this may turn out to be statistical noise. I am guessing this poll is still fairly even, with a tie or one point lean either way.
it could be that the recent Daily Kos poll shows Romney ahead of Obama so they can present Obama as the “Comeback Kid” after tonight’s debate.
Rasmussen just setting things up to show a nice Romney bounce after the debate. ;)
IIRC, Rasmussen is currently using a D+5 turnout model for the swing states.
Remember the chattering parrots of the MSM with the “green chutes” meme 3 years ago to advance Obama. They gave up when the reality sprouted as economic weeds of mind numbing deficits and persistent unemployment.
ALL polls are bulls#it - ignore them. Vote on Nov. 6.
We don’t need no steenking polls!
I’m not sure how Rasmussen got that number but nothing has changed in his swing state polls since Romney was ahead.
Rasmussen has Montana and Arizona as only likely Romney.
Montana: Romney 55%, Obama 38%
Arizona: Romney 52%, Obama 42%
I wonder how far ahead Romney needs to be before Ras puts them in Mitt’s column.