[PLK]

I know. Obama has fallen on the graph, but there’s still a 26 point difference between Obama and Romney. Am I reading this wrong??

[Arthurio]

Bubbles do not deflate instantly.

[HannibalHamlinJr]

These markets are too small to be efficient and hence are not accurate.

I once thought that ‘people are putting down their money’ so they should be more accurate. But the markets never grew big enough to ensure efficiency.

If anything - they are trailing indicators. Most of the money represents people betting after a combination of the polls plus the narrative.

So it’s a trailing indicator of the polls, which are skewed against Romney by at least 2.5 points, and a trailing indicator of the mood/narrative.

[Leto]

These guys have been right for the last 8 elections since they started using economic modeling:

http://www.theblaze.com/stories/electoral-college-model-predicts-romney-will-win-big-in-2012-and-its-been-right-since-1980/

The model and it’s prediction were submitted for peer review the PDF is available online. They have updated their results and now have NM going for Romney.