[nhwingut]

Rasmussen uses a D+3, not D+5.

The exact party breakdown is D 39 R 36 I 25.
(This is basically a 6 point swing from his party affiliation survey which has R+2.6) Makes no sense to give Dems benefit of doubt.

Another important demo is Race - given that Obama gets 95%+ support so every extra point is almost a full point of support.

Raz’s race demo is White 74 Black 13 Other 13.

(13% was high point for black turnout in 2008. Normal is 11%. So if not 2008 turnout, shave a point or two off Obama’s numbers).

[Personal Responsibility]

Why does Rasmussen use D+3 (or D+5) when his own party affiliation summary shows R+2 (or R+3, rounding up)?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/mood_of_america_archive/partisan_trends/summary_of_party_affiliation

[Trapped Behind Enemy Lines]

Thanks for that. One other item: I do not think midterm elections should be automatically dismissed from turnout projections. More often than not, the results of the midterm elections signal what is in store for the next presidential election. For example, the Republicans’ disastrous losses in the 2006 midterm election was a signal for what was in store for them in 2008.

[rfp1234]

(This is basically a 6 point swing from his party affiliation survey which has R+2.6) Makes no sense to give Dems benefit of doubt.

Unless he's factoring in the Donkey voter fraud factor [/semisarc].